Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Final Drive (Week 4, 2026)

What really happened

Turnover. The Bills lost 26-29. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.17-J.Allen pass short middle to 86-D.Kincaid to BUF 31 for 7 yards (91-E.Ponder).
2. 2.17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 86-D.Kincaid
3. 3.17-J.Allen scrambles left tackle ran ob at BUF 40 for 4 yards (14-R.Spillane).
4. 4.17-J.Allen pass deep left intended for 5-J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by 4-C.Woodson at NE 19. 4-C.Woodson to NE 19 fo

Drive result

Turnover

Final score

Bills 26, Patriots 29

Outcome

Lost 26-29

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call Sean McDermott made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Short middleClose1st & 10 at BUF 24, 1:42 leftLost 1.8 pts

   17-J.Allen pass short middle to 86-D.Kincaid to BUF 31 for 7 yards (91-E.Ponder).

   Model's pick: Short sideline, 30% win chance vs 28%.

2. Not graded

   17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 86-D.Kincaid

   Penalty, no play.

3. Not graded1st & 10 at BUF 36, 1:21 left

   17-J.Allen scrambles left tackle ran ob at BUF 40 for 4 yards (14-R.Spillane).

   Sack, scramble or throw-away: the play-by-play has no target, so the call is unknown.

4. Deep sidelineClose2nd & 6 at BUF 40, 1:14 leftLost 2.3 pts

   17-J.Allen pass deep left intended for 5-J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by 4-C.Woodson at NE 19. 4-C.Woodson to NE 19 fo

   Model's pick: Outside run, 36% win chance vs 34%.

Sean McDermott scored 88 on 2 graded calls. 🟨🟨 Think you can beat 88? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 76 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 24, or 32%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.