Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins: Final Drive, Week 11 2025

What really happened

Missed field goal. The Commanders lost 13-16. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.8-M.Mariota pass deep middle to 1-D.Samuel to WAS 31 for 28 yards (25-T.Dodson; 23-J.Jones).
2. 2.26-J.McNichols up the middle to WAS 32 for 1 yard (2-B.Chubb; 93-Z.Biggers).
3. 3.8-M.Mariota pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz to WAS 35 for 3 yards (20-J.Brooks).
4. 4.8-M.Mariota pass short right to 84-Ja.Jones ran ob at MIA 40 for 25 yards (21-A.Davis; 29-M.Fitzpatrick).
5. 5.26-J.McNichols left guard to MIA 38 for 2 yards (93-Z.Biggers; 33-J.Marshall).
6. 6.8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 12-R.Chosen (33-J.Marshall) .
7. 7.8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep left to 19-C.Moore.
8. 8.16-M.Gay 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

Drive result

Missed field goal

Final score

Commanders 13, Dolphins 16

Outcome

Lost 13-16

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call Dan Quinn made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Deep middleCostly1st & 10 at WAS 3, 1:41 leftLost 9.4 pts

   8-M.Mariota pass deep middle to 1-D.Samuel to WAS 31 for 28 yards (25-T.Dodson; 23-J.Jones).

   Model's pick: Outside run, 49% win chance vs 40%.

2. Inside runClose1st & 10 at WAS 31, 1:15 leftLost 2.5 pts

   26-J.McNichols up the middle to WAS 32 for 1 yard (2-B.Chubb; 93-Z.Biggers).

   Model's pick: Short middle, 65% win chance vs 62%.

3. Short sidelineClose2nd & 9 at WAS 32, 1:10 leftLost 3.7 pts

   8-M.Mariota pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz to WAS 35 for 3 yards (20-J.Brooks).

   Model's pick: Deep middle, 65% win chance vs 61%.

4. Short sidelineClose3rd & 6 at WAS 35, 1:05 leftLost 1.0 pts

   8-M.Mariota pass short right to 84-Ja.Jones ran ob at MIA 40 for 25 yards (21-A.Davis; 29-M.Fitzpatrick).

   Model's pick: Short middle, 60% win chance vs 59%.

5. Inside runBest call1st & 10 at MIA 40, 0:57 leftTop option

   26-J.McNichols left guard to MIA 38 for 2 yards (93-Z.Biggers; 33-J.Marshall).

   Model's pick too, 88% win chance.

6. Short sidelineClose2nd & 8 at MIA 38, 0:25 leftLost 1.9 pts

   8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 12-R.Chosen (33-J.Marshall) .

   Model's pick: Inside run, 86% win chance vs 85%.

7. Deep sidelineCostly3rd & 8 at MIA 38, 0:22 leftLost 5.6 pts

   8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep left to 19-C.Moore.

   Model's pick: Outside run, 86% win chance vs 80%.

8. Field goalBest call4th & 8 at MIA 38, 0:15 leftTop option

   16-M.Gay 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

   Model's pick too, 81% win chance.

Dan Quinn scored 82 on 8 graded calls. 🟧🟨🟨🟨🟩🟨🟧🟩 Think you can beat 82? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 5 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 2, or 40%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.