Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals Final Drive (Week 6, 2026)

What really happened

Touchdown. The Rams lost 16-18. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to LA 17 for 3 yards (21-G.Williams; 35-K.King).
2. 2.9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee pushed ob at LA 22 for 5 yards (16-M.Melton).
3. 3.23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 28 for 6 yards (1-Ma.Wilson).
4. 4.PENALTY on LA-65-C.Shelton, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 28 - No Play.
5. 5.9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-P.Nacua to ARI 34 for 43 yards (21-G.Williams) .
6. 6.9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee pushed ob at ARI 29 for 5 yards (16-M.Melton).
7. 7.9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-P.Nacua to ARI 13 for 16 yards
8. 8.9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 23-K.Williams to ARI 6 for 7 yards
9. 9.9-M.Stafford pass short right to 84-C.Parkinson to ARI 1 for 5 yards

Drive result

Touchdown

Final score

Rams 16, Cardinals 18

Outcome

Lost 16-18

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call Sean McVay made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Short sidelineClose1st & 10 at LA 14, 2:48 leftLost 1.3 pts

   9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to LA 17 for 3 yards (21-G.Williams; 35-K.King).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 20% win chance vs 19%.

2. Short sidelineClose2nd & 7 at LA 17, 2:26 leftLost 1.9 pts

   9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee pushed ob at LA 22 for 5 yards (16-M.Melton).

   Model's pick: Deep middle, 18% win chance vs 17%.

3. Inside runClose3rd & 2 at LA 22, 2:23 leftLost 1.6 pts

   23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 28 for 6 yards (1-Ma.Wilson).

   Model's pick: Outside run, 18% win chance vs 16%.

4. Not graded

   PENALTY on LA-65-C.Shelton, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at LA 28 - No Play.

   Penalty, no play.

5. Short middleClose1st & 15 at LA 23, 2:01 leftLost 2.3 pts

   9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-P.Nacua to ARI 34 for 43 yards (21-G.Williams) .

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 21% win chance vs 18%.

6. Short sidelineBest call1st & 10 at ARI 34, 1:50 leftLost 0.6 pts

   9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee pushed ob at ARI 29 for 5 yards (16-M.Melton).

   Model's pick: Outside run, 37% win chance vs 37%.

7. Short middleClose2nd & 5 at ARI 29, 1:46 leftLost 2.6 pts

   9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 12-P.Nacua to ARI 13 for 16 yards

   Model's pick: Inside run, 37% win chance vs 35%.

8. Short middleBest call1st & 10 at ARI 13, 1:30 leftTop option

   9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 23-K.Williams to ARI 6 for 7 yards

   Model's pick too, 45% win chance.

9. Short sidelineCostly2nd & 3 at ARI 6, 0:52 leftLost 4.8 pts

   9-M.Stafford pass short right to 84-C.Parkinson to ARI 1 for 5 yards

   Model's pick: Inside run, 71% win chance vs 66%.

Sean McVay scored 89 on 8 graded calls. 🟨🟨🟨🟨🟩🟨🟩🟧 Think you can beat 89? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 34 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 3, or 9%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.