Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Pittsburgh Steelers Final Drive (Week 6, 2026)

What really happened

Field goal. The Buccaneers lost 19-26 in overtime. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.10-J.Daniels pass deep left to 17-T.Hurst to PIT 43 for 22 yards (35-J.Dean; 41-P.Wilson).
2. 2.10-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 14-C.Godwin.
3. 3.10-J.Daniels sacked at PIT 48 for -5 yards (51-N.Herbig).
4. 4.10-J.Daniels pass short right to 17-T.Hurst to PIT 35 for 13 yards (35-J.Dean; 6-P.Queen).
5. 5.4-C.McLaughlin 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

Drive result

Field goal

Final score

Buccaneers 19, Steelers 26

Outcome

Lost 19-26 in overtime

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call Todd Bowles made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Deep sidelineClose1st & 10 at TB 35, 1:21 leftLost 1.1 pts

   10-J.Daniels pass deep left to 17-T.Hurst to PIT 43 for 22 yards (35-J.Dean; 41-P.Wilson).

   Model's pick: Deep middle, 28% win chance vs 27%.

2. Deep sidelineBest call1st & 10 at PIT 43, 1:00 leftTop option

   10-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 14-C.Godwin.

   Model's pick too, 41% win chance.

3. Not graded2nd & 10 at PIT 43, 0:51 left

   10-J.Daniels sacked at PIT 48 for -5 yards (51-N.Herbig).

   Sack, scramble or throw-away: the play-by-play has no target, so the call is unknown.

4. Short sidelineCostly3rd & 15 at PIT 48, 0:40 leftLost 5.6 pts

   10-J.Daniels pass short right to 17-T.Hurst to PIT 35 for 13 yards (35-J.Dean; 6-P.Queen).

   Model's pick: Short middle, 25% win chance vs 19%.

5. Field goalBest call4th & 2 at PIT 35, 0:13 leftTop option

   4-C.McLaughlin 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

   Model's pick too, 35% win chance.

Todd Bowles scored 90 on 4 graded calls. 🟨🟩🟧🟩 Think you can beat 90? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 63 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 13, or 21%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.