Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans Final Drive (Week 6, 2026)

What really happened

Turnover on downs. The Colts lost 20-26. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.17-D.Jones pass short right to 86-W.Mallory ran ob at IND 38 for 15 yards.
2. 2.17-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 28-J.Taylor.
3. 3.17-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 10-K.Allen.
4. 4.17-D.Jones sacked at IND 31 for -7 yards (11-J.Johnson).
5. 5.17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep middle to 13-L.Treadwell (53-A.Hill).

Drive result

Turnover on downs

Final score

Colts 20, Titans 26

Outcome

Lost 20-26

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call Shane Steichen made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Short sidelineBest call1st & 10 at IND 23, 1:57 leftTop option

   17-D.Jones pass short right to 86-W.Mallory ran ob at IND 38 for 15 yards.

   Model's pick too, 28% win chance.

2. Short middleBest call1st & 10 at IND 38, 1:52 leftTop option

   17-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 28-J.Taylor.

   Model's pick too, 35% win chance.

3. Short middleBest call2nd & 10 at IND 38, 1:49 leftLost 0.8 pts

   17-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 10-K.Allen.

   Model's pick: Deep middle, 31% win chance vs 30%.

4. Not graded3rd & 10 at IND 38, 1:45 left

   17-D.Jones sacked at IND 31 for -7 yards (11-J.Johnson).

   Sack, scramble or throw-away: the play-by-play has no target, so the call is unknown.

5. Deep middleClose4th & 17 at IND 31, 1:07 leftLost 1.6 pts

   17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep middle to 13-L.Treadwell (53-A.Hill).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 14% win chance vs 12%.

Shane Steichen scored 96 on 4 graded calls. 🟩🟩🟩🟨 Think you can beat 96? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 82 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 24, or 29%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.