Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans Final Drive (Week 3, 2026)

What really happened

Field goal. The Colts won 19-17. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.17-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 10-K.Allen.
2. 2.17-D.Jones pass deep middle to 13-L.Treadwell to HOU 45 for 20 yards (2-C.Bullock).
3. 3.28-J.Taylor left guard to HOU 40 for 5 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair; 3-K.Lassiter).
4. 4.28-J.Taylor left end to HOU 41 for -1 yards (51-W.Anderson).
5. 5.17-D.Jones pass short left to 10-K.Allen to HOU 35 for 6 yards
6. 6.3-S.Shrader 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

Drive result

Field goal

Final score

Colts 19, Texans 17

Outcome

Won 19-17

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call Shane Steichen made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Short middleBest call1st & 10 at IND 35, 1:48 leftTop option

   17-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 10-K.Allen.

   Model's pick too, 61% win chance.

2. Deep middleBest call2nd & 10 at IND 35, 1:43 leftLost 0.9 pts

   17-D.Jones pass deep middle to 13-L.Treadwell to HOU 45 for 20 yards (2-C.Bullock).

   Model's pick: Short middle, 54% win chance vs 53%.

3. Inside runClose1st & 10 at HOU 45, 1:11 leftLost 1.4 pts

   28-J.Taylor left guard to HOU 40 for 5 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair; 3-K.Lassiter).

   Model's pick: Outside run, 73% win chance vs 71%.

4. Outside runCostly2nd & 5 at HOU 40, 0:29 leftLost 5.5 pts

   28-J.Taylor left end to HOU 41 for -1 yards (51-W.Anderson).

   Model's pick: Short sideline, 69% win chance vs 64%.

5. Short sidelineClose3rd & 6 at HOU 41, 0:24 leftLost 3.5 pts

   17-D.Jones pass short left to 10-K.Allen to HOU 35 for 6 yards

   Model's pick: Short middle, 60% win chance vs 57%.

6. Field goalBest call4th & 1 at HOU 36, 0:21 leftTop option

   3-S.Shrader 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

   Model's pick too, 67% win chance.

Shane Steichen scored 89 on 6 graded calls. 🟩🟩🟨🟧🟨🟩 Think you can beat 89? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 84 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 45, or 54%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.