Los Angeles Rams vs Denver Broncos Final Drive (Week 3, 2026)

What really happened

Turnover. The Rams lost 26-30. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 4-K.Mumpfield (21-R.Moss).
2. 2.9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Adams.
3. 3.9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams to DEN 48 for 19 yards (22-B.Jones).
4. 4.9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 89-T.Higbee. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruli
5. 5.9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams.
6. 6.9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 23-K.Williams to DEN 14 for 20 yards (26-D.Key).
7. 7.9-M.Stafford spiked the ball to stop the clock.
8. 8.PENALTY on LA-77-A.Jackson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 14 - No Play.
9. 9.9-M.Stafford pass deep right intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 9-T.Hufanga at DEN -1. Touchback.

Drive result

Turnover

Final score

Rams 26, Broncos 30

Outcome

Lost 26-30

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call Sean McVay made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Short sidelineClose1st & 10 at LA 33, 0:42 leftLost 1.7 pts

   9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 4-K.Mumpfield (21-R.Moss).

   Model's pick: Deep middle, 6% win chance vs 4%.

2. Short sidelineClose2nd & 10 at LA 33, 0:37 leftLost 1.2 pts

   9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Adams.

   Model's pick: Deep middle, 5% win chance vs 4%.

3. Short sidelineClose3rd & 10 at LA 33, 0:32 leftLost 1.5 pts

   9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams to DEN 48 for 19 yards (22-B.Jones).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 7% win chance vs 5%.

4. Short sidelineCostly1st & 10 at DEN 48, 0:26 leftLost 4.7 pts

   9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 89-T.Higbee. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruli

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 8% win chance vs 4%.

5. Deep sidelineClose1st & 10 at DEN 34, 0:21 leftLost 1.8 pts

   9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams.

   Model's pick: Short middle, 14% win chance vs 12%.

6. Deep sidelineBest call2nd & 10 at DEN 34, 0:16 leftTop option

   9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 23-K.Williams to DEN 14 for 20 yards (26-D.Key).

   Model's pick too, 11% win chance.

7. SpikeBest call1st & 10 at DEN 14, 0:03 leftLost 0.0 pts

   9-M.Stafford spiked the ball to stop the clock.

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 24% win chance vs 24%.

8. Not graded

   PENALTY on LA-77-A.Jackson, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 14 - No Play.

   Penalty, no play.

9. Deep sidelineBest call2nd & 15 at DEN 19, 0:02 leftTop option

   9-M.Stafford pass deep right intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 9-T.Hufanga at DEN -1. Touchback.

   Model's pick too, 5% win chance.

Sean McVay scored 92 on 8 graded calls. 🟨🟨🟨🟧🟨🟩🟩🟩 Think you can beat 92? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 53 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 6, or 11%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.