Oct 19, 2026: Washington Commanders vs Denver Broncos Final Drive (Week 13, 2025)

What really happened

Field goal. The Commanders lost 26-27 in overtime. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 13-T.Burks (2-P.Surtain).
2. 2.8-M.Mariota scrambles right end ran ob at WAS 26 for 11 yards (57-D.Greenlaw; 49-A.Singleton).
3. 3.8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep right to 13-T.Burks.
4. 4.8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep middle to 17-T.McLaurin.
5. 5.8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to WAS 35 for 9 yards (49-A.Singleton).
6. 6.26-J.McNichols up the middle to WAS 37 for 2 yards (15-N.Bonitto).
7. 7.8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to DEN 49 for 14 yards (9-T.Hufanga).
8. 8.PENALTY on WAS-17-T.McLaurin, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 49 - No Play.
9. 9.8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep left. PENALTY on WAS-8-M.Mariota, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced a
10. 10.8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep right to 17-T.McLaurin (21-R.Moss).
11. 11.8-M.Mariota pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin pushed ob at DEN 45 for 19 yards (21-R.Moss; 29-J.McMillian).
12. 12.8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to DEN 37 for 8 yards (23-J.Barron).
13. 13.8-M.Mariota pass short right to 1-D.Samuel to DEN 27 for 10 yards
14. 14.8-M.Mariota pass short left to 1-D.Samuel to DEN 20 for 7 yards (97-M.Roach; 29-J.McMillian).
15. 15.8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep right.
16. 16.8-M.Mariota left end pushed ob at DEN 14 for 6 yards (2-P.Surtain).
17. 17.8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short left.
18. 18.8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short left.
19. 19.16-J.Moody 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-10-T.Way.

Drive result

Field goal

Final score

Commanders 26, Broncos 27

Outcome

Lost 26-27 in overtime

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call Dan Quinn made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Short sidelineClose1st & 10 at WAS 15, 3:00 leftLost 1.3 pts

   8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 13-T.Burks (2-P.Surtain).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 30% win chance vs 29%.

2. Not graded2nd & 10 at WAS 15, 2:55 left

   8-M.Mariota scrambles right end ran ob at WAS 26 for 11 yards (57-D.Greenlaw; 49-A.Singleton).

   Sack, scramble or throw-away: the play-by-play has no target, so the call is unknown.

3. Deep sidelineClose1st & 10 at WAS 26, 2:49 leftLost 2.0 pts

   8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep right to 13-T.Burks.

   Model's pick: Outside run, 32% win chance vs 30%.

4. Deep middleClose2nd & 10 at WAS 26, 2:43 leftLost 2.3 pts

   8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep middle to 17-T.McLaurin.

   Model's pick: Short middle, 26% win chance vs 24%.

5. Short middleClose3rd & 10 at WAS 26, 2:38 leftLost 2.2 pts

   8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to WAS 35 for 9 yards (49-A.Singleton).

   Model's pick: Deep middle, 23% win chance vs 21%.

6. Inside runBest call4th & 1 at WAS 35, 2:17 leftTop option

   26-J.McNichols up the middle to WAS 37 for 2 yards (15-N.Bonitto).

   Model's pick too, 32% win chance.

7. Short middleBest call1st & 10 at WAS 37, 2:00 leftTop option

   8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to DEN 49 for 14 yards (9-T.Hufanga).

   Model's pick too, 33% win chance.

8. Not graded

   PENALTY on WAS-17-T.McLaurin, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 49 - No Play.

   Penalty, no play.

9. Deep sidelineBest call1st & 15 at WAS 46, 1:25 leftLost 1.0 pts

   8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep left. PENALTY on WAS-8-M.Mariota, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced a

   Model's pick: Deep middle, 35% win chance vs 34%.

10. Deep sidelineBest call2nd & 25 at WAS 36, 1:05 leftTop option

    8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep right to 17-T.McLaurin (21-R.Moss).

    Model's pick too, 21% win chance.

11. Deep sidelineBest call3rd & 25 at WAS 36, 0:59 leftTop option

    8-M.Mariota pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin pushed ob at DEN 45 for 19 yards (21-R.Moss; 29-J.McMillian).

    Model's pick too, 16% win chance.

12. Short middleBest call4th & 6 at DEN 45, 0:52 leftTop option

    8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to DEN 37 for 8 yards (23-J.Barron).

    Model's pick too, 24% win chance.

13. Short sidelineBest call1st & 10 at DEN 37, 0:34 leftLost 0.2 pts

    8-M.Mariota pass short right to 1-D.Samuel to DEN 27 for 10 yards

    Model's pick: Deep sideline, 42% win chance vs 42%.

14. Short sidelineClose1st & 10 at DEN 27, 0:31 leftLost 2.2 pts

    8-M.Mariota pass short left to 1-D.Samuel to DEN 20 for 7 yards (97-M.Roach; 29-J.McMillian).

    Model's pick: Deep sideline, 50% win chance vs 48%.

15. Deep sidelineClose2nd & 3 at DEN 20, 0:23 leftLost 3.4 pts

    8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep right.

    Model's pick: Outside run, 48% win chance vs 44%.

16. Outside runBest call3rd & 3 at DEN 20, 0:19 leftLost 0.9 pts

    8-M.Mariota left end pushed ob at DEN 14 for 6 yards (2-P.Surtain).

    Model's pick: Inside run, 48% win chance vs 47%.

17. Short sidelineBig miss1st & 10 at DEN 14, 0:12 leftLost 22.1 pts

    8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short left.

    Model's pick: Outside run, 49% win chance vs 27%.

18. Short sidelineBig miss2nd & 10 at DEN 14, 0:07 leftLost 22.9 pts

    8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short left.

    Model's pick: Field goal, 48% win chance vs 25%.

19. Field goalBest call3rd & 10 at DEN 14, 0:04 leftTop option

    16-J.Moody 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-10-T.Way.

    Model's pick too, 48% win chance.

Dan Quinn scored 83 on 17 graded calls. 🟨🟨🟨🟨🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟨🟨🟩🟥🟥🟩 Think you can beat 83? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 40 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 18, or 45%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.