Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans Final Drive (Week 4, 2026)

What really happened

Touchdown. The Cowboys won 34-30. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 88-C.Lamb (5-J.Pitre).
2. 2.4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to DAL 35 for 9 yards (27-K.Ramsey).
3. 3.4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to DAL 32 for -3 yards (27-K.Ramsey).
4. 4.4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 87-J.Ferguson to DAL 39 for 7 yards (2-C.Bullock).
5. 5.4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left .
6. 6.4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to HOU 46 for 15 yards (5-J.Pitre).
7. 7.4-D.Prescott pass short right to 33-J.Williams to HOU 42 for 4 yards (35-J.Hansen) .
8. 8.4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to HOU 34 for 8 yards (3-K.Lassiter).
9. 9.4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-G.Pickens pushed ob at HOU 12 for 22 yards (6-R.Blankenship).
10. 10.4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 19-R.Flournoy .
11. 11.4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb for 12 yards,

Drive result

Touchdown

Final score

Cowboys 34, Texans 30

Outcome

Won 34-30

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call Brian Schottenheimer made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Deep sidelineBest call1st & 10 at DAL 26, 2:15 leftLost 0.5 pts

   4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 88-C.Lamb (5-J.Pitre).

   Model's pick: Inside run, 31% win chance vs 30%.

2. Short sidelineBest call2nd & 10 at DAL 26, 2:10 leftTop option

   4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to DAL 35 for 9 yards (27-K.Ramsey).

   Model's pick too, 31% win chance.

3. Short sidelineClose3rd & 1 at DAL 35, 2:00 leftLost 3.9 pts

   4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to DAL 32 for -3 yards (27-K.Ramsey).

   Model's pick: Short middle, 35% win chance vs 31%.

4. Short middleBest call4th & 4 at DAL 32, 1:34 leftTop option

   4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 87-J.Ferguson to DAL 39 for 7 yards (2-C.Bullock).

   Model's pick too, 23% win chance.

5. Short sidelineClose1st & 10 at DAL 39, 1:16 leftLost 1.7 pts

   4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left .

   Model's pick: Inside run, 33% win chance vs 31%.

6. Short sidelineBest call2nd & 10 at DAL 39, 1:12 leftLost 0.8 pts

   4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to HOU 46 for 15 yards (5-J.Pitre).

   Model's pick: Deep middle, 29% win chance vs 28%.

7. Short sidelineClose1st & 10 at HOU 46, 1:02 leftLost 2.3 pts

   4-D.Prescott pass short right to 33-J.Williams to HOU 42 for 4 yards (35-J.Hansen) .

   Model's pick: Short middle, 40% win chance vs 37%.

8. Short sidelineBest call2nd & 6 at HOU 42, 0:58 leftTop option

   4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to HOU 34 for 8 yards (3-K.Lassiter).

   Model's pick too, 42% win chance.

9. Deep sidelineBest call1st & 10 at HOU 34, 0:52 leftLost 0.5 pts

   4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-G.Pickens pushed ob at HOU 12 for 22 yards (6-R.Blankenship).

   Model's pick: Inside run, 44% win chance vs 44%.

10. Short sidelineBest call1st & 10 at HOU 12, 0:47 leftLost 1.0 pts

    4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 19-R.Flournoy .

    Model's pick: Short middle, 64% win chance vs 63%.

11. Short middleBest call2nd & 10 at HOU 12, 0:43 leftLost 0.2 pts

    4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb for 12 yards,

    Model's pick: Outside run, 58% win chance vs 58%.

Brian Schottenheimer scored 94 on 11 graded calls. 🟩🟩🟨🟩🟨🟩🟨🟩🟩🟩🟩 Think you can beat 94? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 82 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 37, or 45%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.