Oct 20, 2026: Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars Final Drive (Week 5, 2026)

What really happened

Field goal. The Eagles lost 17-19. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 88-D.Goedert.
2. 2.PENALTY on PHI-72-M.Bell, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 38 - No Play.
3. 3.1-J.Hurts pass short right to 13-D.Wicks pushed ob at PHI 43 for 10 yards (12-T.Hunter).
4. 4.1-J.Hurts pass short left to 13-D.Wicks to PHI 49 for 6 yards (12-T.Hunter).
5. 5.1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left.
6. 6.1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert to JAX 34 for 17 yards (25-R.Lane; 23-F.Oluokun).
7. 7.1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right.
8. 8.1-J.Hurts pass short right to 9-M.Lemon pushed ob at JAX 27 for 7 yards (2-J.Lewis) .
9. 9.39-D.Pierce up the middle to JAX 30 for -3 yards (44-T.Walker).
10. 10.4-J.Elliott 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.

Drive result

Field goal

Final score

Eagles 17, Jaguars 19

Outcome

Lost 17-19

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call Nick Sirianni made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Short middleBest call1st & 10 at PHI 38, 1:35 leftTop option

   1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short middle to 88-D.Goedert.

   Model's pick too, 59% win chance.

2. Not graded

   PENALTY on PHI-72-M.Bell, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 38 - No Play.

   Penalty, no play.

3. Short sidelineBig miss2nd & 15 at PHI 33, 1:31 leftLost 10.6 pts

   1-J.Hurts pass short right to 13-D.Wicks pushed ob at PHI 43 for 10 yards (12-T.Hunter).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 50% win chance vs 39%.

4. Short sidelineClose3rd & 5 at PHI 43, 1:27 leftLost 2.0 pts

   1-J.Hurts pass short left to 13-D.Wicks to PHI 49 for 6 yards (12-T.Hunter).

   Model's pick: Short middle, 56% win chance vs 54%.

5. Short sidelineClose1st & 10 at PHI 49, 1:05 leftLost 2.5 pts

   1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left.

   Model's pick: Outside run, 67% win chance vs 64%.

6. Short middleBest call2nd & 10 at PHI 49, 1:00 leftLost 0.1 pts

   1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert to JAX 34 for 17 yards (25-R.Lane; 23-F.Oluokun).

   Model's pick: Short sideline, 59% win chance vs 59%.

7. Short sidelineBest call1st & 10 at JAX 34, 0:25 leftTop option

   1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right.

   Model's pick too, 82% win chance.

8. Short sidelineBest call2nd & 10 at JAX 34, 0:21 leftTop option

   1-J.Hurts pass short right to 9-M.Lemon pushed ob at JAX 27 for 7 yards (2-J.Lewis) .

   Model's pick too, 83% win chance.

9. Inside runBest call3rd & 3 at JAX 27, 0:17 leftLost 0.5 pts

   39-D.Pierce up the middle to JAX 30 for -3 yards (44-T.Walker).

   Model's pick: Outside run, 88% win chance vs 88%.

10. Field goalBest call4th & 6 at JAX 30, 0:12 leftTop option

    4-J.Elliott 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.

    Model's pick too, 76% win chance.

Nick Sirianni scored 90 on 9 graded calls. 🟩🟥🟨🟨🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 Think you can beat 90? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 67 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 31, or 46%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.