New York Jets vs Detroit Lions Final Drive (Week 3, 2026)

What really happened

Turnover. The Jets lost 24-31. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.7-G.Smith pass short middle to 16-K.Sadiq to NYJ 46 for 15 yards (55-D.Barnes; 21-R.McCreary).
2. 2.7-G.Smith pass short left to 0-B.Allen pushed ob at NYJ 46 for no gain (53-T.Nowaske).
3. 3.7-G.Smith pass short right to 16-K.Sadiq pushed ob at DET 47 for 7 yards (4-D.Reed).
4. 4.7-G.Smith pass short middle to 5-G.Wilson to DET 40 for 7 yards (21-R.McCreary).
5. 5.7-G.Smith pass short left to 0-B.Allen to DET 33 for 7 yards (55-D.Barnes).
6. 6.7-G.Smith pass short left to 89-J.Ruckert pushed ob at DET 28 for 5 yards (5-C.Izien).
7. 7.7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 5-G.Wilson. NYJ-5-G.Wilson was injured during the play.
8. 8.7-G.Smith sacked at DET 41 for -13 yards

Drive result

Turnover

Final score

Jets 24, Lions 31

Outcome

Lost 24-31

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call Aaron Glenn made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Short middleClose1st & 10 at NYJ 31, 2:19 leftLost 4.0 pts

   7-G.Smith pass short middle to 16-K.Sadiq to NYJ 46 for 15 yards (55-D.Barnes; 21-R.McCreary).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 13% win chance vs 9%.

2. Short sidelineClose1st & 10 at NYJ 46, 2:00 leftLost 2.4 pts

   7-G.Smith pass short left to 0-B.Allen pushed ob at NYJ 46 for no gain (53-T.Nowaske).

   Model's pick: Short middle, 14% win chance vs 12%.

3. Short sidelineClose2nd & 10 at NYJ 46, 1:54 leftLost 3.3 pts

   7-G.Smith pass short right to 16-K.Sadiq pushed ob at DET 47 for 7 yards (4-D.Reed).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 14% win chance vs 11%.

4. Short middleBest call3rd & 3 at DET 47, 1:45 leftTop option

   7-G.Smith pass short middle to 5-G.Wilson to DET 40 for 7 yards (21-R.McCreary).

   Model's pick too, 12% win chance.

5. Short sidelineClose1st & 10 at DET 40, 1:21 leftLost 1.2 pts

   7-G.Smith pass short left to 0-B.Allen to DET 33 for 7 yards (55-D.Barnes).

   Model's pick: Short middle, 15% win chance vs 13%.

6. Short sidelineClose2nd & 3 at DET 33, 1:01 leftLost 1.2 pts

   7-G.Smith pass short left to 89-J.Ruckert pushed ob at DET 28 for 5 yards (5-C.Izien).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 15% win chance vs 14%.

7. Short sidelineClose1st & 10 at DET 28, 0:56 leftLost 3.5 pts

   7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 5-G.Wilson. NYJ-5-G.Wilson was injured during the play.

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 19% win chance vs 16%.

8. Not graded2nd & 10 at DET 28, 0:51 left

   7-G.Smith sacked at DET 41 for -13 yards

   Sack, scramble or throw-away: the play-by-play has no target, so the call is unknown.

Aaron Glenn scored 87 on 7 graded calls. 🟨🟨🟨🟩🟨🟨🟨 Think you can beat 87? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 39 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 8, or 21%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.