New Orleans Saints vs Las Vegas Raiders Final Drive (Week 3, 2026)

What really happened

Turnover. The Saints lost 27-35. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.6-T.Shough pass short middle intended for 83-J.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 97-T.Hemingway at NO 16. 97-T.Hemingway
2. 2.6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to NO 21 for -4 yards (7-Q.Walker).
3. 3.6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave ran ob at NO 40 for 19 yards (3-T.Johnson).
4. 4.6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to NO 41 for 1 yard

Drive result

Turnover

Final score

Saints 27, Raiders 35

Outcome

Lost 27-35

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call Kellen Moore made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Not graded

   6-T.Shough pass short middle intended for 83-J.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 97-T.Hemingway at NO 16. 97-T.Hemingway

   Penalty, no play.

2. Short sidelineBest call1st & 10 at NO 25, 1:31 leftLost 0.6 pts

   6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to NO 21 for -4 yards (7-Q.Walker).

   Model's pick: Deep middle, 2% win chance vs 2%.

3. Deep sidelineBest call2nd & 14 at NO 21, 1:08 leftLost 0.5 pts

   6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave ran ob at NO 40 for 19 yards (3-T.Johnson).

   Model's pick: Spike, 2% win chance vs 1%.

4. Short sidelineBest call1st & 10 at NO 40, 1:02 leftLost 1.0 pts

   6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to NO 41 for 1 yard

   Model's pick: Deep middle, 3% win chance vs 2%.

Kellen Moore scored 96 on 3 graded calls. 🟩🟩🟩 Think you can beat 96? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 50 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 1, or 2%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.