New York Jets vs Green Bay Packers Final Drive (Week 2, 2026)

What really happened

Turnover on downs. The Jets lost 17-20 in overtime. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.7-G.Smith pass short right to 5-G.Wilson to NYJ 41 for 11 yards
2. 2.7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep right to 15-A.Mitchell (33-E.Williams).
3. 3.7-G.Smith pass short right to 5-G.Wilson to NYJ 49 for 8 yards (90-L.Van Ness).
4. 4.20-B.Hall left guard to 50 for 1 yard (94-K.Brooks; 90-L.Van Ness).
5. 5.0-B.Allen right guard to 50 for no gain (90-L.Van Ness).

Drive result

Turnover on downs

Final score

Jets 17, Packers 20

Outcome

Lost 17-20 in overtime

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call Aaron Glenn made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Short sidelineClose1st & 10 at NYJ 30, 2:54 leftLost 1.9 pts

   7-G.Smith pass short right to 5-G.Wilson to NYJ 41 for 11 yards

   Model's pick: Short middle, 64% win chance vs 62%.

2. Deep sidelineCostly1st & 10 at NYJ 41, 2:48 leftLost 8.2 pts

   7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep right to 15-A.Mitchell (33-E.Williams).

   Model's pick: Outside run, 72% win chance vs 64%.

3. Short sidelineClose2nd & 10 at NYJ 41, 2:40 leftLost 2.8 pts

   7-G.Smith pass short right to 5-G.Wilson to NYJ 49 for 8 yards (90-L.Van Ness).

   Model's pick: Short middle, 65% win chance vs 62%.

4. Inside runBest call3rd & 2 at NYJ 49, 2:00 leftTop option

   20-B.Hall left guard to 50 for 1 yard (94-K.Brooks; 90-L.Van Ness).

   Model's pick too, 76% win chance.

5. Inside runBest call4th & 1 at Midfield, 1:20 leftTop option

   0-B.Allen right guard to 50 for no gain (90-L.Van Ness).

   Model's pick too, 79% win chance.

Aaron Glenn scored 85 on 5 graded calls. 🟨🟧🟨🟩🟩 Think you can beat 85? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 18 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 10, or 56%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.