Green Bay Packers vs New York Jets Final Drive (Week 2, 2026)

What really happened

Turnover on downs. The Packers won 20-17 in overtime. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.10-J.Love pass incomplete short middle to 9-C.Watson.
2. 2.10-J.Love pass incomplete deep right to 0-M.Golden.
3. 3.10-J.Love pass short right to 9-C.Watson to NYJ 45 for 5 yards (6-D.Belton).
4. 4.PENALTY on GB, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 45 - No Play. 10-second runoff.
5. 5.10-J.Love sacked at GB 45 for -5 yards (52-K.Enagbare).

Drive result

Turnover on downs

Final score

Packers 20, Jets 17

Outcome

Won 20-17 in overtime

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call Matt LaFleur made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Short middleBest call1st & 10 at Midfield, 1:15 leftLost 0.9 pts

   10-J.Love pass incomplete short middle to 9-C.Watson.

   Model's pick: Outside run, 78% win chance vs 78%.

2. Deep sidelineCostly2nd & 10 at Midfield, 1:11 leftLost 4.4 pts

   10-J.Love pass incomplete deep right to 0-M.Golden.

   Model's pick: Outside run, 77% win chance vs 72%.

3. Short sidelineClose3rd & 10 at Midfield, 1:05 leftLost 2.7 pts

   10-J.Love pass short right to 9-C.Watson to NYJ 45 for 5 yards (6-D.Belton).

   Model's pick: Short middle, 69% win chance vs 66%.

4. Not graded

   PENALTY on GB, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 45 - No Play. 10-second runoff.

   Penalty, no play.

5. Not graded4th & 10 at Midfield, 0:02 left

   10-J.Love sacked at GB 45 for -5 yards (52-K.Enagbare).

   Sack, scramble or throw-away: the play-by-play has no target, so the call is unknown.

Matt LaFleur scored 84 on 3 graded calls. 🟩🟧🟨 Think you can beat 84? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 3 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 2, or 67%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.