Detroit Lions vs New Orleans Saints Final Drive (Week 1, 2026)

What really happened

Punt. The Lions won 31-30 in overtime. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.16-J.Goff scrambles left end ran ob at DET 37 for 2 yards (7-J.Sanker).
2. 2.16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to DET 44 for 7 yards (20-P.Werner; 55-K.Elliss).
3. 3.16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 1-J.Williams.
4. 4.3-J.Fox punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-49-H.Hatten, Touchback.

Drive result

Punt

Final score

Lions 31, Saints 30

Outcome

Won 31-30 in overtime

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call Dan Campbell made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Not graded1st & 10 at DET 35, 1:07 left

   16-J.Goff scrambles left end ran ob at DET 37 for 2 yards (7-J.Sanker).

   Sack, scramble or throw-away: the play-by-play has no target, so the call is unknown.

2. Short middleClose2nd & 8 at DET 37, 1:00 leftLost 1.3 pts

   16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to DET 44 for 7 yards (20-P.Werner; 55-K.Elliss).

   Model's pick: Short sideline, 75% win chance vs 74%.

3. Short sidelineBest call3rd & 1 at DET 44, 0:40 leftTop option

   16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 1-J.Williams.

   Model's pick too, 74% win chance.

4. Not graded4th & 1 at DET 44, 0:37 left

   3-J.Fox punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-49-H.Hatten, Touchback.

   Punt, not one of the game's 8 calls.

Dan Campbell scored 96 on 2 graded calls. 🟨🟩 Think you can beat 96? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 23 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 14, or 61%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.