New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions Final Drive (Week 1, 2026)

What really happened

Touchdown. The Saints lost 30-31 in overtime. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave ran ob at NO 33 for 8 yards (23-R.Ya-Sin).
2. 2.6-T.Shough sacked at NO 23 for -10 yards (97-A.Hutchinson).
3. 3.6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 83-J.Johnson (98-D.Wonnum).
4. 4.6-T.Shough pass short right to 18-B.Lance to NO 38 for 15 yards (4-D.Reed).
5. 5.6-T.Shough pass short right to 14-D.Vele to NO 49 for 11 yards (23-R.Ya-Sin).
6. 6.6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right.
7. 7.6-T.Shough pass deep middle to 12-C.Olave to DET 9 for 42 yards
8. 8.6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson for 9 yards,

Drive result

Touchdown

Final score

Saints 30, Lions 31

Outcome

Lost 30-31 in overtime

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call Kellen Moore made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Short sidelineBest call1st & 10 at NO 25, 2:27 leftTop option

   6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave ran ob at NO 33 for 8 yards (23-R.Ya-Sin).

   Model's pick too, 11% win chance.

2. Not graded2nd & 2 at NO 33, 2:23 left

   6-T.Shough sacked at NO 23 for -10 yards (97-A.Hutchinson).

   Sack, scramble or throw-away: the play-by-play has no target, so the call is unknown.

3. Short sidelineBest call3rd & 12 at NO 23, 2:00 leftTop option

   6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 83-J.Johnson (98-D.Wonnum).

   Model's pick too, 8% win chance.

4. Short sidelineClose4th & 12 at NO 23, 1:55 leftLost 1.7 pts

   6-T.Shough pass short right to 18-B.Lance to NO 38 for 15 yards (4-D.Reed).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 5% win chance vs 4%.

5. Short sidelineClose1st & 10 at NO 38, 1:47 leftLost 1.4 pts

   6-T.Shough pass short right to 14-D.Vele to NO 49 for 11 yards (23-R.Ya-Sin).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 12% win chance vs 11%.

6. Short sidelineBest call1st & 10 at NO 49, 1:29 leftLost 0.9 pts

   6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right.

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 14% win chance vs 13%.

7. Deep middleClose2nd & 10 at NO 49, 1:23 leftLost 1.5 pts

   6-T.Shough pass deep middle to 12-C.Olave to DET 9 for 42 yards

   Model's pick: Outside run, 13% win chance vs 11%.

8. Short sidelineBest call1st & Goal at DET 9, 1:13 leftLost 0.9 pts

   6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson for 9 yards,

   Model's pick: Outside run, 25% win chance vs 24%.

Kellen Moore scored 95 on 7 graded calls. 🟩🟩🟨🟨🟩🟨🟩 Think you can beat 95? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 37 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 9, or 24%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.