Carolina Panthers vs Cleveland Browns Final Drive (Week 3, 2026)

What really happened

Turnover. The Panthers lost 18-21. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.9-B.Young pass short left to 88-D.Waller to CAR 28 for 11 yards (26-M.Harden).
2. 2.9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 88-D.Waller.
3. 3.PENALTY on CAR-57-M.Freeling, False Start, 6 yards, enforced at CAR 28 - No Play.
4. 4.9-B.Young pass deep middle to 87-B.Tremayne to CAR 42 for 20 yards (49-C.Schwesinger) .
5. 5.9-B.Young spiked the ball to stop the clock.
6. 6.9-B.Young pass incomplete deep middle to 83-D.Moore .
7. 7.9-B.Young pass short left intended for 88-D.Waller INTERCEPTED by 33-R.Hickman

Drive result

Turnover

Final score

Panthers 18, Browns 21

Outcome

Lost 18-21

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call Dave Canales made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Short sidelineClose1st & 10 at CAR 17, 1:01 leftLost 3.4 pts

   9-B.Young pass short left to 88-D.Waller to CAR 28 for 11 yards (26-M.Harden).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 11% win chance vs 7%.

2. Short sidelineClose1st & 10 at CAR 28, 0:41 leftLost 2.4 pts

   9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 88-D.Waller.

   Model's pick: Deep middle, 11% win chance vs 9%.

3. Not graded

   PENALTY on CAR-57-M.Freeling, False Start, 6 yards, enforced at CAR 28 - No Play.

   Penalty, no play.

4. Deep middleClose2nd & 16 at CAR 22, 0:37 leftLost 2.7 pts

   9-B.Young pass deep middle to 87-B.Tremayne to CAR 42 for 20 yards (49-C.Schwesinger) .

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 10% win chance vs 7%.

5. SpikeCostly1st & 10 at CAR 42, 0:22 leftLost 7.0 pts

   9-B.Young spiked the ball to stop the clock.

   Model's pick: Deep middle, 15% win chance vs 8%.

6. Deep middleBest call2nd & 10 at CAR 42, 0:21 leftTop option

   9-B.Young pass incomplete deep middle to 83-D.Moore .

   Model's pick too, 14% win chance.

7. Short sidelineCostly3rd & 10 at CAR 42, 0:16 leftLost 9.9 pts

   9-B.Young pass short left intended for 88-D.Waller INTERCEPTED by 33-R.Hickman

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 15% win chance vs 5%.

Dave Canales scored 75 on 6 graded calls. 🟨🟨🟨🟧🟩🟧 Think you can beat 75? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 39 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 6, or 15%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.