Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills Final Drive (Week 5, 2026)

What really happened

Touchdown. The Rams lost 34-37 in overtime. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 17-D.Adams to BUF 49 for 14 yards
2. 2.9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams ran ob at BUF 44 for 5 yards (21-D.Igbinosun).
3. 3.9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to BUF 28 for 16 yards (3-D.Hamlin).
4. 4.9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams ran ob at BUF 13 for 15 yards (47-C.Benford).
5. 5.9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams pushed ob at BUF 10 for 3 yards (30-A.Kendall).
6. 6.9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 12-P.Nacua.
7. 7.9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 23-K.Williams to BUF 1 for 9 yards (3-D.Hamlin).
8. 8.23-K.Williams left guard for 1 yard,

Drive result

Touchdown

Final score

Rams 34, Bills 37

Outcome

Lost 34-37 in overtime

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call Sean McVay made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Short middleClose1st & 10 at LA 37, 1:32 leftLost 3.0 pts

   9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 17-D.Adams to BUF 49 for 14 yards

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 9% win chance vs 6%.

2. Short sidelineClose1st & 10 at BUF 49, 1:15 leftLost 1.3 pts

   9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams ran ob at BUF 44 for 5 yards (21-D.Igbinosun).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 12% win chance vs 10%.

3. Short sidelineBest call2nd & 5 at BUF 44, 1:09 leftLost 1.0 pts

   9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to BUF 28 for 16 yards (3-D.Hamlin).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 12% win chance vs 11%.

4. Short sidelineClose1st & 10 at BUF 28, 0:47 leftLost 2.6 pts

   9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams ran ob at BUF 13 for 15 yards (47-C.Benford).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 17% win chance vs 15%.

5. Short sidelineBest call1st & 10 at BUF 13, 0:42 leftLost 0.3 pts

   9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams pushed ob at BUF 10 for 3 yards (30-A.Kendall).

   Model's pick: Short middle, 26% win chance vs 25%.

6. Short middleBest call2nd & 7 at BUF 10, 0:35 leftTop option

   9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 12-P.Nacua.

   Model's pick too, 25% win chance.

7. Short middleBest call3rd & 7 at BUF 10, 0:31 leftLost 0.0 pts

   9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 23-K.Williams to BUF 1 for 9 yards (3-D.Hamlin).

   Model's pick: Deep middle, 17% win chance vs 17%.

8. Inside runBest call1st & Goal at BUF 1, 0:08 leftLost 0.3 pts

   23-K.Williams left guard for 1 yard,

   Model's pick: Outside run, 36% win chance vs 36%.

Sean McVay scored 94 on 8 graded calls. 🟨🟨🟩🟨🟩🟩🟩🟩 Think you can beat 94? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 45 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 4, or 9%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.