Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets Final Drive (Week 5, 2026)

What really happened

Turnover. The Browns lost 12-17. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.4-D.Watson pass short right to 44-H.Fannin to CLE 24 for 4 yards (2-J.Brownlee; 56-D.Davis).
2. 2.4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right to 12-D.Boston (1-A.Thomas) .
3. 3.4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right .
4. 4.PENALTY on CLE, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 24 - No Play.
5. 5.4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 19 for 0 yards

Drive result

Turnover

Final score

Browns 12, Jets 17

Outcome

Lost 12-17

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call Todd Monken made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Short sidelineBest call1st & 10 at CLE 20, 1:41 leftLost 1.0 pts

   4-D.Watson pass short right to 44-H.Fannin to CLE 24 for 4 yards (2-J.Brownlee; 56-D.Davis).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 10% win chance vs 9%.

2. Short sidelineBest call2nd & 6 at CLE 24, 1:12 leftLost 0.3 pts

   4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right to 12-D.Boston (1-A.Thomas) .

   Model's pick: Deep middle, 5% win chance vs 5%.

3. Short sidelineClose3rd & 6 at CLE 24, 1:07 leftLost 2.2 pts

   4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right .

   Model's pick: Deep middle, 7% win chance vs 4%.

4. Not graded

   PENALTY on CLE, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 24 - No Play.

   Penalty, no play.

5. Not graded4th & 11 at CLE 19, 0:57 left

   4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 19 for 0 yards

   Sack, scramble or throw-away: the play-by-play has no target, so the call is unknown.

Todd Monken scored 93 on 3 graded calls. 🟩🟩🟨 Think you can beat 93? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 69 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 12, or 17%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.