Los Angeles Rams vs Philadelphia Eagles Final Drive (Week 4, 2026)

What really happened

Touchdown. The Rams won 24-20. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 12-P.Nacua
2. 2.9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua pushed ob at LA 32 for 7 yards (11-J.Campbell).
3. 3.9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to LA 48 for 16 yards (2-T.Woolen).
4. 4.9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee ran ob at PHI 39 for 13 yards.
5. 5.9-M.Stafford pass short left to 8-T.Atwell to PHI 31 for 8 yards (31-J.Jones; 33-C.DeJean).
6. 6.9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to PHI 19 for 12 yards (24-A.Mukuba; 97-M.Ojomo).
7. 7.9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 17-D.Adams (31-J.Jones).
8. 8.9-M.Stafford scrambles right end pushed ob at PHI 11 for 8 yards (11-J.Campbell).
9. 9.23-K.Williams right guard to PHI 8 for 3 yards (17-A.Ebiketie; 54-J.Trotter).
10. 10.23-K.Williams right guard to PHI 7 for 1 yard (35-M.Carter; 24-A.Mukuba).
11. 11.23-K.Williams left end for 7 yards,

Drive result

Touchdown

Final score

Rams 24, Eagles 20

Outcome

Won 24-20

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call Sean McVay made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Not graded

   9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 12-P.Nacua

   Penalty, no play.

2. Short sidelineBest call1st & 10 at LA 25, 2:52 leftLost 0.8 pts

   9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua pushed ob at LA 32 for 7 yards (11-J.Campbell).

   Model's pick: Outside run, 31% win chance vs 30%.

3. Short sidelineClose2nd & 3 at LA 32, 2:47 leftLost 1.5 pts

   9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to LA 48 for 16 yards (2-T.Woolen).

   Model's pick: Outside run, 34% win chance vs 32%.

4. Short sidelineBest call1st & 10 at LA 48, 2:26 leftTop option

   9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee ran ob at PHI 39 for 13 yards.

   Model's pick too, 38% win chance.

5. Short sidelineBest call1st & 10 at PHI 39, 2:20 leftLost 0.7 pts

   9-M.Stafford pass short left to 8-T.Atwell to PHI 31 for 8 yards (31-J.Jones; 33-C.DeJean).

   Model's pick: Outside run, 43% win chance vs 43%.

6. Short sidelineClose2nd & 2 at PHI 31, 2:00 leftLost 2.7 pts

   9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua to PHI 19 for 12 yards (24-A.Mukuba; 97-M.Ojomo).

   Model's pick: Inside run, 50% win chance vs 47%.

7. Short middleBest call1st & 10 at PHI 19, 1:37 leftTop option

   9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 17-D.Adams (31-J.Jones).

   Model's pick too, 54% win chance.

8. Not graded2nd & 10 at PHI 19, 1:32 left

   9-M.Stafford scrambles right end pushed ob at PHI 11 for 8 yards (11-J.Campbell).

   Sack, scramble or throw-away: the play-by-play has no target, so the call is unknown.

9. Inside runClose3rd & 2 at PHI 11, 1:24 leftLost 3.8 pts

   23-K.Williams right guard to PHI 8 for 3 yards (17-A.Ebiketie; 54-J.Trotter).

   Model's pick: Short middle, 59% win chance vs 56%.

10. Inside runBest call1st & Goal at PHI 8, 1:22 leftLost 0.3 pts

    23-K.Williams right guard to PHI 7 for 1 yard (35-M.Carter; 24-A.Mukuba).

    Model's pick: Outside run, 68% win chance vs 68%.

11. Outside runClose2nd & Goal at PHI 7, 1:17 leftLost 2.3 pts

    23-K.Williams left end for 7 yards,

    Model's pick: Short middle, 64% win chance vs 61%.

Sean McVay scored 92 on 9 graded calls. 🟩🟨🟩🟩🟨🟩🟨🟩🟨 Think you can beat 92? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 64 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 29, or 45%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.