Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs Final Drive (Week 4, 2026)

What really happened

Turnover. The Raiders lost 27-30. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.8-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-T.Tucker pushed ob at LV 9 for 8 yards (20-N.Williams).
2. 2.8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 1-T.Tucker (20-N.Williams).
3. 3.PENALTY on LV-76-C.Rogers, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at LV 9 - No Play.
4. 4.8-K.Cousins pass short left to 87-M.Mayer to LV 16 for 11 yards (32-N.Bolton).
5. 5.8-K.Cousins spiked the ball to stop the clock.
6. 6.8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 82-C.White .
7. 7.8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 82-C.White to LV 23 for 7 yards
8. 8.8-K.Cousins pass short right to 2-A.Jeanty ran ob at LV 28 for 12 yards (20-N.Williams; 38-L.Sneed).
9. 9.8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep middle to 1-T.Tucker.
10. 10.8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 1-T.Tucker to KC 49 for 23 yards (27-C.Conner).
11. 11.8-K.Cousins spiked the ball to stop the clock.
12. 12.8-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 87-M.Mayer INTERCEPTED by 29-X.Nwankpa

Drive result

Turnover

Final score

Raiders 27, Chiefs 30

Outcome

Lost 27-30

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call Klint Kubliak made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Short sidelineBest call1st & 10 at LV 1, 1:16 leftLost 0.9 pts

   8-K.Cousins pass short right to 1-T.Tucker pushed ob at LV 9 for 8 yards (20-N.Williams).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 6% win chance vs 5%.

2. Deep sidelineBest call2nd & 2 at LV 9, 1:11 leftTop option

   8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 1-T.Tucker (20-N.Williams).

   Model's pick too, 8% win chance.

3. Not graded

   PENALTY on LV-76-C.Rogers, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at LV 9 - No Play.

   Penalty, no play.

4. Short sidelineClose3rd & 6 at LV 5, 1:05 leftLost 2.2 pts

   8-K.Cousins pass short left to 87-M.Mayer to LV 16 for 11 yards (32-N.Bolton).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 6% win chance vs 3%.

5. SpikeClose1st & 10 at LV 16, 0:48 leftLost 3.0 pts

   8-K.Cousins spiked the ball to stop the clock.

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 7% win chance vs 4%.

6. Deep sidelineBest call2nd & 10 at LV 16, 0:47 leftTop option

   8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 82-C.White .

   Model's pick too, 7% win chance.

7. Short middleCostly3rd & 10 at LV 16, 0:43 leftLost 5.9 pts

   8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 82-C.White to LV 23 for 7 yards

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 9% win chance vs 3%.

8. Short sidelineClose4th & 10 at LV 16, 0:37 leftLost 2.5 pts

   8-K.Cousins pass short right to 2-A.Jeanty ran ob at LV 28 for 12 yards (20-N.Williams; 38-L.Sneed).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 5% win chance vs 2%.

9. Deep middleBest call1st & 10 at LV 28, 0:31 leftTop option

   8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep middle to 1-T.Tucker.

   Model's pick too, 8% win chance.

10. Deep middleBest call2nd & 10 at LV 28, 0:25 leftTop option

    8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 1-T.Tucker to KC 49 for 23 yards (27-C.Conner).

    Model's pick too, 6% win chance.

11. SpikeBig miss1st & 10 at KC 49, 0:11 leftLost 14.9 pts

    8-K.Cousins spiked the ball to stop the clock.

    Model's pick: Field goal, 19% win chance vs 4%.

12. Short sidelineBig miss2nd & 10 at KC 49, 0:10 leftLost 12.8 pts

    8-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 87-M.Mayer INTERCEPTED by 29-X.Nwankpa

    Model's pick: Field goal, 19% win chance vs 7%.

Klint Kubliak scored 77 on 11 graded calls. 🟩🟩🟨🟨🟩🟧🟨🟩🟩🟥🟥 Think you can beat 77? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 7 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 0, or 0%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.