Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta Falcons Final Drive (Week 5, 2026)

What really happened

Touchdown. The Ravens won 30-23 in overtime. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.5-T.Huntley scrambles right end to BAL 31 for 2 yards
2. 2.5-T.Huntley pass deep left to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 45 for 26 yards
3. 3.5-T.Huntley pass short left to 7-R.Bateman to ATL 41 for 11 yards (21-M.Hughes).
4. 4.5-T.Huntley pass short left to 4-Z.Flowers to ATL 37 for 4 yards (31-X.Watts).
5. 5.5-T.Huntley pass short left to 7-R.Bateman to ATL 30 for 7 yards (31-X.Watts).
6. 6.5-T.Huntley pass short left to 89-M.Andrews to ATL 27 for 3 yards (56-H.Perkins).
7. 7.5-T.Huntley pass short left to 7-R.Bateman to ATL 7 for 20 yards
8. 8.5-T.Huntley pass short left to 81-D.Walker for 7 yards,
9. 9.TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 22-D.Henry rushes left end. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. ** Injury Update: ATL-21-M.Hughes

Drive result

Touchdown

Final score

Ravens 30, Falcons 23

Outcome

Won 30-23 in overtime

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call Jesse Minter made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Not graded

   5-T.Huntley scrambles right end to BAL 31 for 2 yards

   Penalty, no play.

2. Not graded

   5-T.Huntley pass deep left to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 45 for 26 yards

   Penalty, no play.

3. Short sidelineBest call1st & 10 at BAL 48, 2:05 leftLost 0.6 pts

   5-T.Huntley pass short left to 7-R.Bateman to ATL 41 for 11 yards (21-M.Hughes).

   Model's pick: Outside run, 7% win chance vs 7%.

4. Short sidelineClose1st & 10 at ATL 41, 2:00 leftLost 1.4 pts

   5-T.Huntley pass short left to 4-Z.Flowers to ATL 37 for 4 yards (31-X.Watts).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 10% win chance vs 9%.

5. Short sidelineBest call2nd & 6 at ATL 37, 1:38 leftLost 0.7 pts

   5-T.Huntley pass short left to 7-R.Bateman to ATL 30 for 7 yards (31-X.Watts).

   Model's pick: Short middle, 9% win chance vs 8%.

6. Short sidelineBest call1st & 10 at ATL 30, 1:17 leftLost 0.4 pts

   5-T.Huntley pass short left to 89-M.Andrews to ATL 27 for 3 yards (56-H.Perkins).

   Model's pick: Short middle, 9% win chance vs 9%.

7. Short sidelineClose2nd & 7 at ATL 27, 0:52 leftLost 1.6 pts

   5-T.Huntley pass short left to 7-R.Bateman to ATL 7 for 20 yards

   Model's pick: Short middle, 9% win chance vs 7%.

8. Short sidelineBest call1st & Goal at ATL 7, 0:44 leftLost 0.8 pts

   5-T.Huntley pass short left to 81-D.Walker for 7 yards,

   Model's pick: Short middle, 17% win chance vs 16%.

9. Not graded

   TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 22-D.Henry rushes left end. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. ** Injury Update: ATL-21-M.Hughes

   Two-point try after the touchdown, not part of the drive's play calling.

Jesse Minter scored 95 on 6 graded calls. 🟩🟨🟩🟩🟨🟩 Think you can beat 95? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 17 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 3, or 18%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.