Atlanta Falcons vs Baltimore Ravens Final Drive (Week 5, 2026)

What really happened

Punt. The Falcons lost 23-30 in overtime. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.9-M.Penix pass deep right to 4-J.Dotson to ATL 41 for 18 yards (2-N.Wiggins).
2. 2.9-M.Penix sacked at ATL 31 for -10 yards
3. 3.1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 7-Bi.Robinson ran ob at ATL 45 for 14 yards (0-R.Smith).
4. 4.9-M.Penix pass incomplete short left. ** Injury Update: ATL-9-M.Penix has returned to the game.
5. 5.16-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.

Drive result

Punt

Final score

Falcons 23, Ravens 30

Outcome

Lost 23-30 in overtime

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call Raheem Morris made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Deep sidelineBest call1st & 10 at ATL 23, 0:34 leftTop option

   9-M.Penix pass deep right to 4-J.Dotson to ATL 41 for 18 yards (2-N.Wiggins).

   Model's pick too, 61% win chance.

2. Not graded1st & 10 at ATL 41, 0:27 left

   9-M.Penix sacked at ATL 31 for -10 yards

   Sack, scramble or throw-away: the play-by-play has no target, so the call is unknown.

3. Short sidelineClose2nd & 20 at ATL 31, 0:19 leftLost 1.9 pts

   1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 7-Bi.Robinson ran ob at ATL 45 for 14 yards (0-R.Smith).

   Model's pick: Deep middle, 54% win chance vs 52%.

4. Short sidelineClose3rd & 6 at ATL 45, 0:13 leftLost 2.2 pts

   9-M.Penix pass incomplete short left. ** Injury Update: ATL-9-M.Penix has returned to the game.

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 56% win chance vs 53%.

5. Not graded4th & 6 at ATL 45, 0:08 left

   16-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.

   Punt, not one of the game's 8 calls.

Raheem Morris scored 92 on 3 graded calls. 🟩🟨🟨 Think you can beat 92? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 29 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 13, or 45%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.