Oct 21, 2026: New Orleans Saints vs Washington Commanders Final Drive (Week 15, 2024)

What really happened

Touchdown. The Saints lost 19-20. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.25-K.Miller right guard to WAS 44 for 12 yards
2. 2.18-S.Rattler pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Johnson
3. 3.25-K.Miller right guard to WAS 35 for 6 yards (54-B.Wagner; 0-M.Sainristil).
4. 4.18-S.Rattler pass short right to 81-K.Austin ran ob at WAS 27 for 8 yards (0-M.Sainristil).
5. 5.25-K.Miller left tackle to WAS 15 for 12 yards (92-D.Armstrong; 22-D.Forrest).
6. 6.25-K.Miller left guard to WAS 17 for -2 yards (92-D.Armstrong).
7. 7.18-S.Rattler pass short middle to 83-J.Johnson to WAS 8 for 9 yards (22-D.Forrest).
8. 8.18-S.Rattler pass incomplete short left to 17-D.Pettis.
9. 9.18-S.Rattler pass short right to 87-F.Moreau to WAS 1 for 7 yards (1-N.Igbinoghene; 0-M.Sainristil).
10. 10.18-S.Rattler spiked the ball to stop the clock.
11. 11.18-S.Rattler pass short right to 87-F.Moreau for 1 yard,
12. 12.TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 18-S.Rattler pass to 83-J.Johnson is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.

Drive result

Touchdown

Final score

Saints 19, Commanders 20

Outcome

Lost 19-20

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call Darren Rizzi made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Inside runClose1st & 10 at NO 44, 1:55 leftLost 2.4 pts

   25-K.Miller right guard to WAS 44 for 12 yards

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 13% win chance vs 11%.

2. Short sidelineBest call1st & 10 at WAS 44, 1:36 leftTop option

   18-S.Rattler pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Johnson

   Model's pick too, 15% win chance.

3. Inside runClose2nd & 7 at WAS 41, 1:21 leftLost 2.6 pts

   25-K.Miller right guard to WAS 35 for 6 yards (54-B.Wagner; 0-M.Sainristil).

   Model's pick: Deep middle, 13% win chance vs 11%.

4. Short sidelineBest call3rd & 1 at WAS 35, 1:04 leftLost 0.7 pts

   18-S.Rattler pass short right to 81-K.Austin ran ob at WAS 27 for 8 yards (0-M.Sainristil).

   Model's pick: Inside run, 14% win chance vs 14%.

5. Outside runClose1st & 10 at WAS 27, 1:00 leftLost 1.2 pts

   25-K.Miller left tackle to WAS 15 for 12 yards (92-D.Armstrong; 22-D.Forrest).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 19% win chance vs 18%.

6. Inside runClose1st & 10 at WAS 15, 0:41 leftLost 3.6 pts

   25-K.Miller left guard to WAS 17 for -2 yards (92-D.Armstrong).

   Model's pick: Short middle, 24% win chance vs 20%.

7. Short middleClose2nd & 12 at WAS 17, 0:38 leftLost 3.9 pts

   18-S.Rattler pass short middle to 83-J.Johnson to WAS 8 for 9 yards (22-D.Forrest).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 16% win chance vs 12%.

8. Short sidelineBest call3rd & 3 at WAS 8, 0:22 leftTop option

   18-S.Rattler pass incomplete short left to 17-D.Pettis.

   Model's pick too, 20% win chance.

9. Short sidelineClose4th & 3 at WAS 8, 0:17 leftLost 2.6 pts

   18-S.Rattler pass short right to 87-F.Moreau to WAS 1 for 7 yards (1-N.Igbinoghene; 0-M.Sainristil).

   Model's pick: Short middle, 14% win chance vs 11%.

10. SpikeBig miss1st & Goal at WAS 1, 0:04 leftLost 16.9 pts

    18-S.Rattler spiked the ball to stop the clock.

    Model's pick: Inside run, 34% win chance vs 17%.

11. Short sidelineCostly2nd & Goal at WAS 1, 0:03 leftLost 9.9 pts

    18-S.Rattler pass short right to 87-F.Moreau for 1 yard,

    Model's pick: Inside run, 34% win chance vs 24%.

12. Not graded

    TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 18-S.Rattler pass to 83-J.Johnson is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.

    Two-point try after the touchdown, not part of the drive's play calling.

Darren Rizzi scored 76 on 11 graded calls. 🟨🟩🟨🟩🟨🟨🟨🟩🟨🟥🟧 Think you can beat 76? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 29 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 4, or 14%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.