Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills Final Drive (Week 1, 2026)

What really happened

Turnover. The Texans lost 31-36. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz to HOU 47 for 18 yards (23-D.Alford; 91-E.Oliver).
2. 2.7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz to BUF 45 for 8 yards (3-D.Hamlin; 24-C.Bishop).
3. 3.7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 19-X.Hutchinson.
4. 4.4-W.Marks up the middle to BUF 39 for 6 yards
5. 5.PENALTY on HOU-77-T.Brown, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 34 - No Play.
6. 6.7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep middle to 19-X.Hutchinson .
7. 7.7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to BUF 27 for 12 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).
8. 8.7-C.Stroud pass short right to 13-J.Noel pushed ob at BUF 9 for 18 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).
9. 9.7-C.Stroud sacked at BUF 18 for -9 yards (96-D.Walker).
10. 10.7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 12-N.Collins.
11. 11.7-C.Stroud sacked at BUF 28 for -10 yards

Drive result

Turnover

Final score

Texans 31, Bills 36

Outcome

Lost 31-36

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call DeMeco Ryans made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Short sidelineClose1st & 10 at HOU 29, 1:31 leftLost 2.5 pts

   7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz to HOU 47 for 18 yards (23-D.Alford; 91-E.Oliver).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 17% win chance vs 14%.

2. Short sidelineClose1st & 10 at HOU 47, 1:11 leftLost 1.9 pts

   7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz to BUF 45 for 8 yards (3-D.Hamlin; 24-C.Bishop).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 21% win chance vs 19%.

3. Deep sidelineBest call2nd & 2 at BUF 45, 0:50 leftLost 0.1 pts

   7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 19-X.Hutchinson.

   Model's pick: Deep middle, 23% win chance vs 23%.

4. Inside runBig miss3rd & 2 at BUF 45, 0:44 leftLost 13.4 pts

   4-W.Marks up the middle to BUF 39 for 6 yards

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 23% win chance vs 10%.

5. Not graded

   PENALTY on HOU-77-T.Brown, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 34 - No Play.

   Penalty, no play.

6. Deep middleCostly1st & 15 at BUF 39, 0:39 leftLost 5.0 pts

   7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep middle to 19-X.Hutchinson .

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 23% win chance vs 18%.

7. Short middleClose2nd & 15 at BUF 39, 0:35 leftLost 1.5 pts

   7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to BUF 27 for 12 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 22% win chance vs 21%.

8. Short sidelineCostly3rd & 3 at BUF 27, 0:30 leftLost 9.7 pts

   7-C.Stroud pass short right to 13-J.Noel pushed ob at BUF 9 for 18 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 27% win chance vs 17%.

9. Not graded1st & Goal at BUF 9, 0:25 left

   7-C.Stroud sacked at BUF 18 for -9 yards (96-D.Walker).

   Sack, scramble or throw-away: the play-by-play has no target, so the call is unknown.

10. Deep sidelineBest call2nd & Goal at BUF 18, 0:20 leftTop option

    7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 12-N.Collins.

    Model's pick too, 27% win chance.

11. Not graded3rd & Goal at BUF 18, 0:16 left

    7-C.Stroud sacked at BUF 28 for -10 yards

    Sack, scramble or throw-away: the play-by-play has no target, so the call is unknown.

DeMeco Ryans scored 75 on 8 graded calls. 🟨🟨🟩🟥🟧🟨🟧🟩 Think you can beat 75? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 73 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 10, or 14%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.