Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars Final Drive (Week 6, 2026)

What really happened

Field goal. The Texans won 34-31. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.4-W.Marks right guard to HOU 34 for 2 yards (44-T.Walker).
2. 2.7-C.Stroud pass short left to 4-W.Marks to HOU 40 for 6 yards (50-B.Combs) .
3. 3.7-C.Stroud pass short right to 4-W.Marks pushed ob at JAX 41 for 19 yards (50-B.Combs).
4. 4.4-W.Marks right tackle to JAX 39 for 2 yards (91-A.Armstead; 50-B.Combs).
5. 5.57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 25-J.Jordan left tackle to JAX 32 for 7 yards (26-K.Merriweather).
6. 6.57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 8-C.Stover. 8-C.Stover right guard to JAX 32 for no gain
7. 7.15-K.Fairbairn 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.

Drive result

Field goal

Final score

Texans 34, Jaguars 31

Outcome

Won 34-31

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call DeMeco Ryans made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Inside runClose1st & 10 at HOU 32, 1:49 leftLost 1.6 pts

   4-W.Marks right guard to HOU 34 for 2 yards (44-T.Walker).

   Model's pick: Short middle, 72% win chance vs 70%.

2. Short sidelineCostly2nd & 8 at HOU 34, 1:14 leftLost 4.5 pts

   7-C.Stroud pass short left to 4-W.Marks to HOU 40 for 6 yards (50-B.Combs) .

   Model's pick: Outside run, 71% win chance vs 66%.

3. Short sidelineClose3rd & 2 at HOU 40, 1:04 leftLost 3.3 pts

   7-C.Stroud pass short right to 4-W.Marks pushed ob at JAX 41 for 19 yards (50-B.Combs).

   Model's pick: Inside run, 75% win chance vs 72%.

4. Outside runBest call1st & 10 at JAX 41, 0:58 leftLost 0.4 pts

   4-W.Marks right tackle to JAX 39 for 2 yards (91-A.Armstead; 50-B.Combs).

   Model's pick: Short middle, 86% win chance vs 85%.

5. Outside runBest call2nd & 8 at JAX 39, 0:53 leftTop option

   57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 25-J.Jordan left tackle to JAX 32 for 7 yards (26-K.Merriweather).

   Model's pick too, 87% win chance.

6. Inside runBest call3rd & 1 at JAX 32, 0:47 leftTop option

   57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 8-C.Stover. 8-C.Stover right guard to JAX 32 for no gain

   Model's pick too, 91% win chance.

7. Field goalBest call4th & 1 at JAX 32, 0:03 leftTop option

   15-K.Fairbairn 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.

   Model's pick too, 89% win chance.

DeMeco Ryans scored 92 on 7 graded calls. 🟨🟧🟨🟩🟩🟩🟩 Think you can beat 92? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 32 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 23, or 72%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.