Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings Final Drive (Week 2, 2026)

What really happened

Turnover on downs. The Bears lost 3-9. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.17-T.Bagent pass short left to 10-L.Burden pushed ob at CHI 41 for 6 yards (23-J.Pierre).
2. 2.17-T.Bagent pass deep middle to 10-L.Burden to MIN 41 for 18 yards (7-B.Murphy).
3. 3.17-T.Bagent spiked the ball to stop the clock.
4. 4.17-T.Bagent pass deep right to 15-R.Odunze pushed ob at MIN 20 for 21 yards (2-I.Rodgers).
5. 5.17-T.Bagent pass short right to 10-L.Burden to MIN 12 for 8 yards (23-J.Pierre).
6. 6.17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short left to 10-L.Burden
7. 7.17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Loveland.
8. 8.17-T.Bagent sacked at MIN 21 for -9 yards (15-D.Turner).

Drive result

Turnover on downs

Final score

Bears 3, Vikings 9

Outcome

Lost 3-9

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call Ben Johnson made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Short sidelineClose1st & 10 at CHI 35, 1:00 leftLost 2.4 pts

   17-T.Bagent pass short left to 10-L.Burden pushed ob at CHI 41 for 6 yards (23-J.Pierre).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 9% win chance vs 7%.

2. Deep middleBest call2nd & 4 at CHI 41, 0:54 leftTop option

   17-T.Bagent pass deep middle to 10-L.Burden to MIN 41 for 18 yards (7-B.Murphy).

   Model's pick too, 9% win chance.

3. SpikeCostly1st & 10 at MIN 41, 0:39 leftLost 7.3 pts

   17-T.Bagent spiked the ball to stop the clock.

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 19% win chance vs 12%.

4. Deep sidelineBest call2nd & 10 at MIN 41, 0:38 leftTop option

   17-T.Bagent pass deep right to 15-R.Odunze pushed ob at MIN 20 for 21 yards (2-I.Rodgers).

   Model's pick too, 14% win chance.

5. Short sidelineCostly1st & 10 at MIN 20, 0:31 leftLost 8.5 pts

   17-T.Bagent pass short right to 10-L.Burden to MIN 12 for 8 yards (23-J.Pierre).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 27% win chance vs 19%.

6. Short sidelineBig miss2nd & 2 at MIN 12, 0:10 leftLost 15.4 pts

   17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short left to 10-L.Burden

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 31% win chance vs 16%.

7. Short middleBig miss3rd & 2 at MIN 12, 0:06 leftLost 11.4 pts

   17-T.Bagent pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Loveland.

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 20% win chance vs 9%.

8. Not graded4th & 2 at MIN 12, 0:01 left

   17-T.Bagent sacked at MIN 21 for -9 yards (15-D.Turner).

   Sack, scramble or throw-away: the play-by-play has no target, so the call is unknown.

Ben Johnson scored 62 on 7 graded calls. 🟨🟩🟧🟩🟧🟥🟥 Think you can beat 62? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 35 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 1, or 3%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.