Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars Final Drive (Week 4, 2026)

What really happened

Turnover on downs. The Bengals lost 17-22. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 82-M.Tinsley ran ob at CIN 46 for 29 yards.
2. 2.9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 88-M.Gesicki ran ob at JAX 36 for 18 yards .
3. 3.9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 81-D.Meyers to JAX 21 for 15 yards (50-B.Combs).
4. 4.9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right to 81-D.Meyers.
5. 5.9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep left to 88-M.Gesicki.
6. 6.9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep right to 82-M.Tinsley .
7. 7.9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 30-C.Brown to JAX 12 for 9 yards (25-R.Lane).

Drive result

Turnover on downs

Final score

Bengals 17, Jaguars 22

Outcome

Lost 17-22

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call Zac Taylor made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Deep sidelineBest call1st & 10 at CIN 17, 1:44 leftTop option

   9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 82-M.Tinsley ran ob at CIN 46 for 29 yards.

   Model's pick too, 8% win chance.

2. Deep sidelineClose1st & 10 at CIN 46, 1:38 leftLost 3.6 pts

   9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 88-M.Gesicki ran ob at JAX 36 for 18 yards .

   Model's pick: Short middle, 22% win chance vs 18%.

3. Deep sidelineClose1st & 10 at JAX 36, 1:32 leftLost 1.5 pts

   9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 81-D.Meyers to JAX 21 for 15 yards (50-B.Combs).

   Model's pick: Short sideline, 32% win chance vs 31%.

4. Short sidelineBest call1st & 10 at JAX 21, 1:08 leftTop option

   9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right to 81-D.Meyers.

   Model's pick too, 41% win chance.

5. Deep sidelineClose2nd & 10 at JAX 21, 1:05 leftLost 1.3 pts

   9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep left to 88-M.Gesicki.

   Model's pick: Short middle, 37% win chance vs 36%.

6. Deep sidelineBest call3rd & 10 at JAX 21, 1:01 leftTop option

   9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep right to 82-M.Tinsley .

   Model's pick too, 34% win chance.

7. Short middleBest call4th & 10 at JAX 21, 0:56 leftTop option

   9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 30-C.Brown to JAX 12 for 9 yards (25-R.Lane).

   Model's pick too, 23% win chance.

Zac Taylor scored 95 on 7 graded calls. 🟩🟨🟨🟩🟨🟩🟩 Think you can beat 95? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 64 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 9, or 14%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.