Detroit Lions vs Carolina Panthers Final Drive (Week 4, 2026)

What really happened

Turnover on downs. The Lions lost 26-32. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to DET 16 for 3 yards (29-A.Evans).
2. 2.16-J.Goff sacked at DET 10 for -6 yards (3-P.Umanmielen).
3. 3.16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 87-S.LaPorta.
4. 4.16-J.Goff pass short middle to 18-I.TeSlaa to DET 22 for 12 yards (22-L.Ransom; 24-W.Lee).

Drive result

Turnover on downs

Final score

Lions 26, Panthers 32

Outcome

Lost 26-32

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call Dan Campbell made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Short sidelineClose1st & 10 at DET 13, 2:06 leftLost 2.4 pts

   16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to DET 16 for 3 yards (29-A.Evans).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 13% win chance vs 11%.

2. Not graded2nd & 7 at DET 16, 2:00 left

   16-J.Goff sacked at DET 10 for -6 yards (3-P.Umanmielen).

   Sack, scramble or throw-away: the play-by-play has no target, so the call is unknown.

3. Deep sidelineBest call3rd & 13 at DET 10, 1:34 leftTop option

   16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 87-S.LaPorta.

   Model's pick too, 6% win chance.

4. Short middleClose4th & 13 at DET 10, 1:29 leftLost 2.4 pts

   16-J.Goff pass short middle to 18-I.TeSlaa to DET 22 for 12 yards (22-L.Ransom; 24-W.Lee).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 5% win chance vs 2%.

Dan Campbell scored 90 on 3 graded calls. 🟨🟩🟨 Think you can beat 90? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 41 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 4, or 10%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.