Oct 26, 2026: Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens Final Drive (Week 5, 2024)

What really happened

Punt. The Bengals lost 38-41 in overtime. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 23 for -7 yards (92-N.Madubuike).
2. 2.9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short left to 5-T.Higgins (2-N.Wiggins).
3. 3.30-C.Brown up the middle to CIN 32 for 9 yards (53-K.Van Noy).
4. 4.8-R.Rehkow punts 57 yards to BAL 11, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

Drive result

Punt

Final score

Bengals 38, Ravens 41

Outcome

Lost 38-41 in overtime

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call Zac Taylor made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Not graded1st & 10 at CIN 30, 1:35 left

   9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 23 for -7 yards (92-N.Madubuike).

   Sack, scramble or throw-away: the play-by-play has no target, so the call is unknown.

2. Short sidelineClose2nd & 17 at CIN 23, 0:59 leftLost 3.6 pts

   9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short left to 5-T.Higgins (2-N.Wiggins).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 62% win chance vs 59%.

3. Inside runCostly3rd & 17 at CIN 23, 0:53 leftLost 7.8 pts

   30-C.Brown up the middle to CIN 32 for 9 yards (53-K.Van Noy).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 56% win chance vs 48%.

4. Not graded4th & 8 at CIN 32, 0:09 left

   8-R.Rehkow punts 57 yards to BAL 11, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

   Punt, not one of the game's 8 calls.

Zac Taylor scored 66 on 2 graded calls. 🟨🟧 Think you can beat 66? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 31 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 22, or 71%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.