Oct 25, 2026: Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints Final Drive (Week 15, 2025)

What really happened

Punt. The Panthers lost 17-20. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.9-B.Young pass incomplete short right.
2. 2.9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan ran ob at CAR 41 for 12 yards. New Orleans challenged the pass comp
3. 3.9-B.Young scrambles left tackle to CAR 40 for 11 yards (33-J.Sanker).
4. 4.9-B.Young sacked at CAR 31 for -9 yards (99-C.Young).
5. 5.9-B.Young pass short left to 17-X.Legette to CAR 36 for 5 yards (29-Q.Riley).
6. 6.9-B.Young scrambles up the middle to CAR 43 for 7 yards (99-C.Young).
7. 7.6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to NO 17, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-D.Pettis. PENALTY on NO-31-J.Howden,

Drive result

Punt

Final score

Panthers 17, Saints 20

Outcome

Lost 17-20

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call Dave Canales made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Short sidelineClose1st & 10 at CAR 29, 2:24 leftLost 1.7 pts

   9-B.Young pass incomplete short right.

   Model's pick: Inside run, 66% win chance vs 65%.

2. Short sidelineCostly2nd & 10 at CAR 29, 2:17 leftLost 4.3 pts

   9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan ran ob at CAR 41 for 12 yards. New Orleans challenged the pass comp

   Model's pick: Short middle, 60% win chance vs 56%.

3. Not graded3rd & 10 at CAR 29, 2:12 left

   9-B.Young scrambles left tackle to CAR 40 for 11 yards (33-J.Sanker).

   Sack, scramble or throw-away: the play-by-play has no target, so the call is unknown.

4. Not graded1st & 10 at CAR 40, 2:00 left

   9-B.Young sacked at CAR 31 for -9 yards (99-C.Young).

   Sack, scramble or throw-away: the play-by-play has no target, so the call is unknown.

5. Short sidelineClose2nd & 19 at CAR 31, 1:21 leftLost 2.2 pts

   9-B.Young pass short left to 17-X.Legette to CAR 36 for 5 yards (29-Q.Riley).

   Model's pick: Outside run, 60% win chance vs 58%.

6. Not graded3rd & 14 at CAR 36, 1:14 left

   9-B.Young scrambles up the middle to CAR 43 for 7 yards (99-C.Young).

   Sack, scramble or throw-away: the play-by-play has no target, so the call is unknown.

7. Not graded4th & 7 at CAR 43, 1:04 left

   6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to NO 17, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-D.Pettis. PENALTY on NO-31-J.Howden,

   Punt, not one of the game's 8 calls.

Dave Canales scored 84 on 3 graded calls. 🟨🟧🟨 Think you can beat 84? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 18 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 14, or 78%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.