Oct 27, 2026: Cleveland Browns vs Indianapolis Colts Final Drive (Week 7, 2023)

What really happened

Touchdown. The Browns won 39-38. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.10-P.Walker pass incomplete short middle to 85-D.Njoku (99-D.Buckner).
2. 2.10-P.Walker pass incomplete short left to 2-A.Cooper.
3. 3.10-P.Walker pass deep right to 8-E.Moore pushed ob at 50 for 30 yards (39-D.Baker) .
4. 4.20-P.Strong left guard to IND 37 for 13 yards (51-K.Paye, 32-J.Blackmon).
5. 5.20-P.Strong left guard to IND 36 for 1 yard (51-K.Paye).
6. 6.10-P.Walker pass short middle to 11-D.Peoples-Jones to IND 19 for 17 yards (25-R.Thomas).
7. 7.20-P.Strong left tackle to IND 22 for -3 yards (52-S.Ebukam).
8. 8.10-P.Walker pass short right to 2-A.Cooper to IND 13 for 9 yards (39-D.Baker).
9. 9.10-P.Walker sacked at IND 26 for -13 yards
10. 10.10-P.Walker pass incomplete short right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones. PENALTY on IND-39-D.Baker, Defensive Pass Inter
11. 11.66-J.Hudson and 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 10-P.Walker pass incomplete short left to 85-D.Njoku
12. 12.10-P.Walker pass incomplete short middle to 85-D.Njoku.
13. 13.10-P.Walker pass incomplete short right to 8-E.Moore .
14. 14.66-J.Hudson and 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 27-K.Hunt up the middle for 1 yard,
15. 15.TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 20-P.Strong rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT FAILS. IND-93-E.Johnson was injured du

Drive result

Touchdown

Final score

Browns 39, Colts 38

Outcome

Won 39-38

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call Kevin Stefanski made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Short middleBest call1st & 10 at CLE 20, 2:35 leftLost 0.2 pts

   10-P.Walker pass incomplete short middle to 85-D.Njoku (99-D.Buckner).

   Model's pick: Short sideline, 19% win chance vs 19%.

2. Short sidelineClose2nd & 10 at CLE 20, 2:31 leftLost 1.5 pts

   10-P.Walker pass incomplete short left to 2-A.Cooper.

   Model's pick: Deep middle, 18% win chance vs 16%.

3. Deep sidelineClose3rd & 10 at CLE 20, 2:27 leftLost 1.6 pts

   10-P.Walker pass deep right to 8-E.Moore pushed ob at 50 for 30 yards (39-D.Baker) .

   Model's pick: Deep middle, 15% win chance vs 13%.

4. Inside runClose1st & 10 at Midfield, 2:19 leftLost 1.4 pts

   20-P.Strong left guard to IND 37 for 13 yards (51-K.Paye, 32-J.Blackmon).

   Model's pick: Outside run, 32% win chance vs 31%.

5. Inside runClose1st & 10 at IND 37, 2:00 leftLost 1.4 pts

   20-P.Strong left guard to IND 36 for 1 yard (51-K.Paye).

   Model's pick: Outside run, 38% win chance vs 36%.

6. Short middleBest call2nd & 9 at IND 36, 1:36 leftTop option

   10-P.Walker pass short middle to 11-D.Peoples-Jones to IND 19 for 17 yards (25-R.Thomas).

   Model's pick too, 31% win chance.

7. Outside runClose1st & 10 at IND 19, 1:12 leftLost 1.5 pts

   20-P.Strong left tackle to IND 22 for -3 yards (52-S.Ebukam).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 40% win chance vs 38%.

8. Short sidelineCostly2nd & 13 at IND 22, 0:52 leftLost 7.1 pts

   10-P.Walker pass short right to 2-A.Cooper to IND 13 for 9 yards (39-D.Baker).

   Model's pick: Short middle, 39% win chance vs 32%.

9. Not graded

   10-P.Walker sacked at IND 26 for -13 yards

   Penalty, no play.

10. Not graded

    10-P.Walker pass incomplete short right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones. PENALTY on IND-39-D.Baker, Defensive Pass Inter

    Penalty, no play.

11. Short sidelineBest call1st & Goal at IND 1, 0:33 leftLost 0.9 pts

    66-J.Hudson and 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 10-P.Walker pass incomplete short left to 85-D.Njoku

    Model's pick: Inside run, 86% win chance vs 85%.

12. Short middleBest call2nd & Goal at IND 1, 0:28 leftTop option

    10-P.Walker pass incomplete short middle to 85-D.Njoku.

    Model's pick too, 85% win chance.

13. Short sidelineCostly3rd & Goal at IND 1, 0:25 leftLost 6.7 pts

    10-P.Walker pass incomplete short right to 8-E.Moore .

    Model's pick: Inside run, 84% win chance vs 77%.

14. Inside runBest call4th & Goal at IND 1, 0:19 leftTop option

    66-J.Hudson and 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 27-K.Hunt up the middle for 1 yard,

    Model's pick too, 69% win chance.

15. Not graded

    TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 20-P.Strong rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT FAILS. IND-93-E.Johnson was injured du

    Two-point try after the touchdown, not part of the drive's play calling.

Kevin Stefanski scored 89 on 12 graded calls. 🟩🟨🟨🟨🟨🟩🟨🟧🟩🟩🟧🟩 Think you can beat 89? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 69 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 19, or 28%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.