Oct 29, 2026: Indianapolis Colts vs Seattle Seahawks Final Drive (Week 15, 2025)

What really happened

Field goal. The Colts lost 16-18. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.28-J.Taylor up the middle to IND 35 for 3 yards (91-B.Murphy).
2. 2.17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short right .
3. 3.17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce to SEA 49 for 16 yards (29-J.Jobe).
4. 4.28-J.Taylor up the middle to SEA 49 for no gain (3-N.Emmanwori).
5. 5.17-P.Rivers pass short right to 84-T.Warren to SEA 46 for 3 yards (21-D.Witherspoon).
6. 6.28-J.Taylor up the middle to SEA 42 for 4 yards (7-U.Nwosu; 58-D.Hall).
7. 7.10-B.Grupe 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

Drive result

Field goal

Final score

Colts 16, Seahawks 18

Outcome

Lost 16-18

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call Shane Steichen made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Inside runCostly1st & 10 at IND 32, 2:21 leftLost 4.1 pts

   28-J.Taylor up the middle to IND 35 for 3 yards (91-B.Murphy).

   Model's pick: Short middle, 55% win chance vs 51%.

2. Short sidelineBest call2nd & 7 at IND 35, 2:00 leftLost 0.5 pts

   17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short right .

   Model's pick: Short middle, 49% win chance vs 49%.

3. Deep sidelineCostly3rd & 7 at IND 35, 1:55 leftLost 9.3 pts

   17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce to SEA 49 for 16 yards (29-J.Jobe).

   Model's pick: Short middle, 48% win chance vs 39%.

4. Inside runClose1st & 10 at SEA 49, 1:12 leftLost 2.5 pts

   28-J.Taylor up the middle to SEA 49 for no gain (3-N.Emmanwori).

   Model's pick: Outside run, 74% win chance vs 71%.

5. Short sidelineClose2nd & 10 at SEA 49, 1:07 leftLost 2.2 pts

   17-P.Rivers pass short right to 84-T.Warren to SEA 46 for 3 yards (21-D.Witherspoon).

   Model's pick: Inside run, 63% win chance vs 61%.

6. Inside runCostly3rd & 7 at SEA 46, 1:01 leftLost 4.8 pts

   28-J.Taylor up the middle to SEA 42 for 4 yards (7-U.Nwosu; 58-D.Hall).

   Model's pick: Short middle, 63% win chance vs 58%.

7. Field goalCostly4th & 3 at SEA 42, 0:52 leftLost 9.0 pts

   10-B.Grupe 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

   Model's pick: Short middle, 56% win chance vs 47%.

Shane Steichen scored 72 on 7 graded calls. 🟧🟩🟧🟨🟨🟧🟧 Think you can beat 72? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 74 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 42, or 57%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.