Oct 28, 2026: Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Rams Final Drive (Week 17, 2025)

What really happened

Field goal. The Falcons won 27-24. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.18-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 7-B.Robinson .
2. 2.18-K.Cousins pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts to ATL 46 for 11 yards (26-K.Kinchens) .
3. 3.7-B.Robinson left end to LA 49 for 5 yards (8-J.Verse; 3-K.Curl).
4. 4.7-B.Robinson left end to LA 45 for 4 yards (48-O.Speights).
5. 5.7-B.Robinson left end pushed ob at LA 35 for 10 yards (3-K.Curl).
6. 6.25-T.Allgeier right tackle to LA 34 for 1 yard (0-B.Young).
7. 7.25-T.Allgeier left tackle to LA 34 for no gain (8-J.Verse; 95-P.Ford).
8. 8.25-T.Allgeier left tackle to LA 33 for 1 yard (95-P.Ford; 91-K.Turner).
9. 9.45-Z.Gonzalez 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

Drive result

Field goal

Final score

Falcons 27, Rams 24

Outcome

Won 27-24

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call Raheem Morris made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Short middleBest call1st & 10 at ATL 35, 2:46 leftTop option

   18-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 7-B.Robinson .

   Model's pick too, 67% win chance.

2. Short middleBest call2nd & 10 at ATL 35, 2:42 leftTop option

   18-K.Cousins pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts to ATL 46 for 11 yards (26-K.Kinchens) .

   Model's pick too, 62% win chance.

3. Outside runClose1st & 10 at ATL 46, 2:00 leftLost 2.1 pts

   7-B.Robinson left end to LA 49 for 5 yards (8-J.Verse; 3-K.Curl).

   Model's pick: Inside run, 75% win chance vs 72%.

4. Outside runBest call2nd & 5 at LA 49, 1:23 leftLost 0.7 pts

   7-B.Robinson left end to LA 45 for 4 yards (48-O.Speights).

   Model's pick: Short sideline, 79% win chance vs 79%.

5. Outside runClose3rd & 1 at LA 45, 0:43 leftLost 1.1 pts

   7-B.Robinson left end pushed ob at LA 35 for 10 yards (3-K.Curl).

   Model's pick: Short middle, 86% win chance vs 85%.

6. Outside runClose1st & 10 at LA 35, 0:38 leftLost 1.1 pts

   25-T.Allgeier right tackle to LA 34 for 1 yard (0-B.Young).

   Model's pick: Inside run, 93% win chance vs 92%.

7. Outside runBest call2nd & 9 at LA 34, 0:35 leftTop option

   25-T.Allgeier left tackle to LA 34 for no gain (8-J.Verse; 95-P.Ford).

   Model's pick too, 91% win chance.

8. Outside runClose3rd & 9 at LA 34, 0:30 leftLost 1.3 pts

   25-T.Allgeier left tackle to LA 33 for 1 yard (95-P.Ford; 91-K.Turner).

   Model's pick: Inside run, 90% win chance vs 88%.

9. Field goalBest call4th & 8 at LA 33, 0:25 leftTop option

   45-Z.Gonzalez 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

   Model's pick too, 84% win chance.

Raheem Morris scored 96 on 9 graded calls. 🟩🟩🟨🟩🟨🟨🟩🟨🟩 Think you can beat 96? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 12 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 8, or 67%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.