Oct 24, 2026: Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos Final Drive (Week 5, 2026)

What really happened

End of half. The Chargers lost 17-23. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.10-J.Herbert pass short right to 34-K.Mitchell to LAC 34 for 3 yards (40-J.Strnad).
2. 2.10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Kolar (40-J.Strnad).
3. 3.10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 13-M.Valdes-Scantling. PENALTY on DEN-40-J.Strnad, Defensive Holdin
4. 4.10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-M.Valdes-Scantling to LAC 48 for 9 yards (26-D.Key).
5. 5.10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-M.Valdes-Scantling to DEN 39 for 13 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine).
6. 6.10-J.Herbert spiked the ball to stop the clock.
7. 7.10-J.Herbert sacked at DEN 46 for -7 yards (29-J.McMillian).

Drive result

End of half

Final score

Chargers 17, Broncos 23

Outcome

Lost 17-23

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call Jim Harbaugh made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Short sidelineClose1st & 10 at LAC 31, 1:02 leftLost 1.8 pts

   10-J.Herbert pass short right to 34-K.Mitchell to LAC 34 for 3 yards (40-J.Strnad).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 8% win chance vs 6%.

2. Short sidelineClose2nd & 7 at LAC 34, 0:45 leftLost 1.9 pts

   10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Kolar (40-J.Strnad).

   Model's pick: Deep middle, 6% win chance vs 4%.

3. Not graded

   10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right to 13-M.Valdes-Scantling. PENALTY on DEN-40-J.Strnad, Defensive Holdin

   Penalty, no play.

4. Short middleClose1st & 10 at LAC 39, 0:33 leftLost 3.2 pts

   10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-M.Valdes-Scantling to LAC 48 for 9 yards (26-D.Key).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 6% win chance vs 3%.

5. Short middleClose2nd & 1 at LAC 48, 0:15 leftLost 2.0 pts

   10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-M.Valdes-Scantling to DEN 39 for 13 yards (31-K.Abrams-Draine).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 3% win chance vs 2%.

6. SpikeBest call1st & 10 at DEN 39, 0:04 leftLost 0.0 pts

   10-J.Herbert spiked the ball to stop the clock.

   Model's pick: Deep middle, 1% win chance vs 1%.

7. Not graded2nd & 10 at DEN 39, 0:03 left

   10-J.Herbert sacked at DEN 46 for -7 yards (29-J.McMillian).

   Sack, scramble or throw-away: the play-by-play has no target, so the call is unknown.

Jim Harbaugh scored 89 on 5 graded calls. 🟨🟨🟨🟨🟩 Think you can beat 89? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 38 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 1, or 3%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.