Nov 3, 2026: Los Angeles Chargers vs Cincinnati Bengals Final Drive (Week 11, 2024)

Chargers vs Bengals: what really happened

Touchdown. The Chargers won 34-27. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 15-L.McConkey to LAC 44 for 28 yards (21-M.Hilton).
2. 2.10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 81-W.Dissly.
3. 3.10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 15-L.McConkey ran ob at CIN 29 for 27 yards (22-G.Stone) .
4. 4.27-J.Dobbins left tackle for 29 yards,

Drive result

Touchdown

Final score

Chargers 34, Bengals 27

Outcome

Won 34-27

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call Jim Harbaugh made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Deep sidelineBest call1st & 10 at LAC 16, 0:45 leftLost 0.1 pts

   10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 15-L.McConkey to LAC 44 for 28 yards (21-M.Hilton).

   Model's pick: Deep middle, 58% win chance vs 58%.

2. Short sidelineClose1st & 10 at LAC 44, 0:35 leftLost 3.2 pts

   10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 81-W.Dissly.

   Model's pick: Deep middle, 72% win chance vs 69%.

3. Deep sidelineBest call2nd & 10 at LAC 44, 0:31 leftTop option

   10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 15-L.McConkey ran ob at CIN 29 for 27 yards (22-G.Stone) .

   Model's pick too, 70% win chance.

4. Outside runClose1st & 10 at CIN 29, 0:26 leftLost 1.0 pts

   27-J.Dobbins left tackle for 29 yards,

   Model's pick: Inside run, 93% win chance vs 92%.

Jim Harbaugh scored 94 on 4 graded calls. 🟩🟨🟩🟨 Think you can beat 94? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 22 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 11, or 50%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.