Oct 31, 2026: Seattle Seahawks vs Washington Commanders Final Drive (Week 10, 2023)

What really happened

Field goal. The Seahawks won 29-26. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.7-G.Smith pass short left to 26-Z.Charbonnet to SEA 28 for 3 yards (20-J.Martin).
2. 2.7-G.Smith pass short left to 26-Z.Charbonnet ran ob at SEA 31 for 3 yards (31-K.Curl).
3. 3.7-G.Smith pass short left to 14-D.Metcalf to SEA 48 for 17 yards (35-P.Butler, 25-B.St-Juste).
4. 4.7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 14-D.Metcalf (25-B.St-Juste).
5. 5.7-G.Smith pass short middle to 14-D.Metcalf to WAS 25 for 27 yards (35-P.Butler, 25-B.St-Juste).
6. 6.7-G.Smith spiked the ball to stop the clock.
7. 7.5-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

Drive result

Field goal

Final score

Seahawks 29, Commanders 26

Outcome

Won 29-26

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call Pete Carroll made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Short sidelineBest call1st & 10 at SEA 25, 0:52 leftTop option

   7-G.Smith pass short left to 26-Z.Charbonnet to SEA 28 for 3 yards (20-J.Martin).

   Model's pick too, 67% win chance.

2. Short sidelineClose2nd & 7 at SEA 28, 0:38 leftLost 2.6 pts

   7-G.Smith pass short left to 26-Z.Charbonnet ran ob at SEA 31 for 3 yards (31-K.Curl).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 60% win chance vs 57%.

3. Short sidelineClose3rd & 4 at SEA 31, 0:33 leftLost 3.0 pts

   7-G.Smith pass short left to 14-D.Metcalf to SEA 48 for 17 yards (35-P.Butler, 25-B.St-Juste).

   Model's pick: Deep middle, 60% win chance vs 57%.

4. Short sidelineClose1st & 10 at SEA 48, 0:28 leftLost 2.7 pts

   7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 14-D.Metcalf (25-B.St-Juste).

   Model's pick: Deep middle, 72% win chance vs 69%.

5. Short middleCostly2nd & 10 at SEA 48, 0:24 leftLost 4.7 pts

   7-G.Smith pass short middle to 14-D.Metcalf to WAS 25 for 27 yards (35-P.Butler, 25-B.St-Juste).

   Model's pick: Deep sideline, 69% win chance vs 65%.

6. SpikeBest call1st & 10 at WAS 25, 0:04 leftTop option

   7-G.Smith spiked the ball to stop the clock.

   Model's pick too, 93% win chance.

7. Field goalBest call2nd & 10 at WAS 25, 0:03 leftTop option

   5-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

   Model's pick too, 94% win chance.

Pete Carroll scored 89 on 7 graded calls. 🟩🟨🟨🟨🟧🟩🟩 Think you can beat 89? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 29 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 17, or 59%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.