Nov 1, 2026: Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots Final Drive (Week 14, 2023)

What really happened

Turnover on downs. The Steelers lost 18-21. Every play of the real drive, as the official play-by-play recorded it:

1. 1.10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth.
2. 2.10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 22-N.Harris to PIT 41 for 14 yards (8-J.Bentley; 48-Ja.Tavai).
3. 3.10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short right to 18-D.Johnson.
4. 4.10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 18-D.Johnson pushed ob at PIT 49 for 8 yards (29-J.Jackson).
5. 5.10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete deep right to 14-G.Pickens.
6. 6.10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete deep left to 18-D.Johnson.

Drive result

Turnover on downs

Final score

Steelers 18, Patriots 21

Outcome

Lost 18-21

How did the real coach grade?

We scored every call Mike Tomlin made on this drive the same way the game scores yours. From the real down, distance, clock and timeouts at each snap, our model plays out every option 400 times and compares the win chances. The model is simplified, so treat these grades as approximate.

1. Short middleClose1st & 10 at PIT 27, 2:44 leftLost 1.3 pts

   10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth.

   Model's pick: Inside run, 33% win chance vs 32%.

2. Short middleBest call2nd & 10 at PIT 27, 2:39 leftTop option

   10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 22-N.Harris to PIT 41 for 14 yards (8-J.Bentley; 48-Ja.Tavai).

   Model's pick too, 29% win chance.

3. Short sidelineBest call1st & 10 at PIT 41, 2:14 leftLost 0.3 pts

   10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short right to 18-D.Johnson.

   Model's pick: Short middle, 38% win chance vs 38%.

4. Short sidelineBest call2nd & 10 at PIT 41, 2:09 leftTop option

   10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 18-D.Johnson pushed ob at PIT 49 for 8 yards (29-J.Jackson).

   Model's pick too, 34% win chance.

5. Deep sidelineCostly3rd & 2 at PIT 49, 2:05 leftLost 4.9 pts

   10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete deep right to 14-G.Pickens.

   Model's pick: Inside run, 40% win chance vs 35%.

6. Deep sidelineBig miss4th & 2 at PIT 49, 2:01 leftLost 12.6 pts

   10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete deep left to 18-D.Johnson.

   Model's pick: Inside run, 34% win chance vs 22%.

Mike Tomlin scored 81 on 6 graded calls. 🟨🟩🟩🟩🟧🟥 Think you can beat 81? Play this drive

How often does this work?

In 65 similar drives from 2023 on (same score gap, similar time and field position), the offense went on to win 28, or 43%. That is a rough real-world baseline, not a precise win probability.